US-Iran breakthrough

The US-Iran nuclear deal is the most important breakthrough in their relationship, indeed the only breakthrough since the 1979 Iranian revolution that ruptured their bilateral relationship. It is indeed a multilateral accord including also the UK, France, Russia, China (as permanent members of the UN Security Council) and Germany. During the last over three decades, the US-Iranian relationship only went from bad to worse. Indeed, President Bush branded Iran as part of the ‘axis of evil’ and it is still regarded as a terrorist state, most notably by Israel. When Iran was found to nurse nuclear ambitions, its ‘evil’ character was so magnified that it became a threat to the world. Indeed, when the US wanted to station missiles in eastern European states, apparently against Russia, it was justified as defence against an Iranian nuclear threat. As the threat was amplified and Iran refused to surrender its sovereign right, as Tehran put it, to pursue nuclear research for peaceful purposes, the US led the charge for international sanctions against it that seriously affected, probably crippled, its economy, making Iran virtually into a pariah state. But that was not the end of the story.
Israel wanted the US to bomb Iran’s nuclear installations or else allow it to do the job with US help and under its protection. There were times it seemed that Israel might persuade the US to do its bidding, though with what follow up results was not quite clear. As is said at times, Israel is not only an occupying power in Palestine; it also seems to occupy the US Congress. But when the pressure for military action against Iran increased towards the end of George Bush’s presidency, he had messed up things in Iraq and Afghanistan so much so that even he was not prepared to dig an even bigger hole for his country. When Obama became president, he was keen to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear question, as he did with the Palestinian issue. This put him at odds with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who did everything possible to undercut Obama on both the issues by working the powerful Israeli lobby in the US.
It must go to Obama’s credit that despite all the pressure from Israel, as well as from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, he quietly and persistently pursued the diplomatic path to untangle and resolve the nuclear issue with Iran. And under the nuclear deal now signed, Iran has agreed, for all intents and purposes, to forgo for the next 10 to 15 years any advanced work that might be interpreted as pursuing a nuclear weapons’ goal. And this will be achieved through a highly intrusive UN inspection and surveillance regime under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This will lengthen the ‘breakout time’ for Iran to make an atomic bomb to one year. The scope for any cheating will be minimal, if any, because of an extensive inspection regime. In specific terms, Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium will be reduced by 98 percent for 15 years, probably by transferring it to Russia. Its centrifuges, the spinning machines used to enrich uranium will be cut from 19,000 to 5,060. And if Iran follows up on its commitments, its crippling sanctions will be phased out.
Of course, all this is not going to be smooth sailing. Israel’s prime minister, Netanyahu, is still doing his utmost to wreck the deal. Some months ago, when Netanyahu was invited to address the US Congress on the subject, he duly railed against it. He is continuing to do that and in this he has the support of Saudi Arabia and its fellow Gulf kingdoms, opposed to the deal for their own reasons. But having worked on the deal for the last 20 months, the Obama administration is determined to get it through Congress. President Obama has said that he would veto any rejection by US Congress that has to review the accord within 60 days. Congress though can out veto the president by a two-thirds majority. But it appears that Obama’s opponents might not be able to marshal that kind of majority. In that case, the nuclear accord with Iran is a done deal, especially after its adoption by the UN Security Council (UNSC).
Israel, of course, will be terribly disappointed. Netanyahu has called it a “ historic mistake”, which will turn Iran into a “terrorist nuclear superpower”. Netanyahu, of course, sees phantoms when it comes to Iran; notwithstanding the fact that Israel is already a nuclear state with an estimated arsenal of 200 bombs. In his hard sell for the deal, Obama told a press conference: “The bottom line is this: this nuclear deal meets the national security interests of the US and our allies. It prevents the most serious threat — Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, which would make the other problems that Iran may cause even worse.” And he went on, “Without a deal, we risk even more war in the Middle East, and other countries in the region would feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear programmes, threatening a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world.”
However, Netanyahu is not interested in any explanation or cogent reason for the deal because he wants Iran to be perpetually in the doghouse. As Philip Hammond, the UK’s foreign secretary, said, “The question you have to ask yourself is what kind of deal would have been welcome in Tel Aviv. The answer, of course, is that Israel does not want any deal with Iran; Israel wants a permanent state of standoff and I do not believe that is in the interests of the region. I do not believe it is in our interests.”
And, of course, if the deal is implemented, it has the potential of changing the Middle Eastern region in some fundamental ways. With sanctions lifted, Iran’s economic potential will open up all sorts of opportunities not only for Iran but also for the region and beyond. Iran will get access to its frozen funds, estimated at $ 100 billion. It will be able to openly sell oil and gas in the international market. There will be potential for international investment in varied projects in Iran, with its people free at last from a perpetual sense of siege since the revolution in 1979. Iran will take its place in the community of nations and might even play a constructive role in a region torn apart for all sorts of reasons.
However, all this will take time, if it works its way. On the surface, both the US and Iran have sought to confine this breakthrough to the nuclear deal between them. They are in fact underplaying, even ignoring, its significance in their overall bilateral relationship, largely for domestic reasons. But there is already a shared sense of danger from the so-called Islamic state (IS). The US is already understanding, if not approving, of the frontline role that Iran-sponsored militias are playing against the self-styled caliphate. And as the nuclear deal proceeds, this is likely to be the most productive area of cooperation between Iran and the US. Once that trust is established, there will be scope for multifaceted cooperation.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.co.au