It is thought that one of the reasons why the Roman Empire fell was that it had become unsustainable. The Romans built their empire through conquests of vast territories, and yet, what built the Roman Empire also caused its negation. The costs of maintaining the empire and the logistical difficulties of defending its territories from resistance forces or competing armies were fatal to it. It was imperial overreach. The same could be said of the Mongol Empire, the Ottoman Empire and the British Empire. Has the US Empire now also become unsustainable?
Let us first put the obvious out of the way. Yes, there is a US Empire. This empire has bases in 63 countries and military deployments in 150 countries around the world. Its share of military spending is approximately 40 percent of the entire world’s military spending, or greater than the combined budgets of the next 12 biggest military spenders. Its share of economic power is one-fifth of the world’s GDP. Its dominant position in financial institutions such as the IMF allows for control over the economies of the underdeveloped world. Its CIA engineers geopolitical events, however remote they may be from US soil. Its National Security Agency (NSA) eavesdrops on phone calls of people anywhere in the world, including heads of state. Its media firms control what the whole world sees, hears and believes. And since the past 60 years, this empire has invaded and attacked countless countries to increase its imperial strength with near impunity, as empires often do. But something has now changed in this unipolar world. Today, the US is engaged in numerous conflicts of decisive significance on every continent where it has wielded power. As a result, it finds itself spread out very thinly over those engagements.
In Latin America, the US faces unprecedented opposition from an increasing number of countries that are inspired by the left-nationalism of Venezuela. It is then clear why the US is targeting Venezuela and assisting opposition forces that are violently opposing the government of President Nicolas Maduro. The settlement of the conflict in Venezuela’s streets will be decisive. If the conflict is not settled in favour of the US, it will be a big blow to its ambitions in Venezuela, which will continue to move further left and influence Latin America for the next five years.
In the Middle East, the US has failed to secure its objectives and is losing its grip. The US failed to take Syria out of the picture since the attempt to bomb it was thwarted last year. Bashar al-Assad’s government is now winning that civil war and so Syria continues to be a thorn in Israel’s side. In Libya, the US mounted a successful regime change campaign but it is now a country dominated by armed gangs, terrorism and anarchy, with prime ministers coming in and leaving the government like visitors in a shopping mall. Since the long-term future of Libya is unpredictable, it may not be a reliable ally for the US. In Iraq, it is acknowledged that more than any other external power, it is now Iran that is the most influential. The cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the US also appears to have decreased over the latter’s backing out of the operation against Syria. More friction may occur in the future as the US tries to reduce its energy dependence on Saudi Arabia through investments in projects such as the Keystone Pipeline.
In Western Asia and South Asia, the US is up against very stiff resistance. Its troubles with Iran on the development of its nuclear capabilities and assistance to anti-US forces are a daily concern. No essential change in Iran’s stance towards the US has yet come about, nor is there likely to be any. In Afghanistan, although the recent elections have been successful, there is the often-discussed threat that the Taliban will return to power. In Pakistan, although successive governments have colluded with the US on the drone programme, there is much public resentment against this relationship, which continues to fuel serious political opposition.
In Central and East Asia, the US has to reckon with two nuclear powers, China and North Korea. Since the past decade, the US has pursued the ‘China containment’ policy. This is rooted in the belief that out of all the countries in the world, China possesses the strongest potential to act as a counterweight to US geo-strategic goals. To that effect, the US has pursued several policy measures, including the establishment of a stronger military-naval presence in the Pacific. However, for now, the US can do nothing but watch helplessly as China grows ever stronger, economically and militarily. Then there is the issue of North Korea, which has become much more difficult to strong-arm because it has acquired the nuclear deterrent that for now eliminates any possibility that the US or South Korea can attack it.
However, the most significant event unfolding before our eyes, which has undermined US dominance in the world, is occurring in Ukraine. The US engineered the outcome in Ukraine, which led to the toppling of the previous government and installation of the current regime. In the past, the contest was always between an overwhelmingly superior force and an opponent that was weak, isolated or defenceless. This time, however, it is the feathers of Russia that have been ruffled from the interference in Ukraine. And Russia is not weak, isolated or defenceless. Neither the US nor Russia will back down from the conflict in Ukraine as a matter of international prestige and domestic reputation. If that is not wrong and the escalation leads to a proxy war between the two, to be played out as a civil war in Ukraine, will the US be able to win in Russia’s backyard, where the armies of Charles XII, Napoleon and Hitler all failed?
The sum of all the extremely difficult engagements across the world that the US is embroiled in today must lead one to conclude that it has bitten off more than it can chew. Can the US push back a resurgent and powerful Russia, while trying to contain a China predicted by many as the next superpower, while simultaneously juggling Latin America, Iran, Afghanistan and the Middle East? Or will the world see the US shift its attention away from the Middle East, away from China, to focus on Russia? These are matters of much interest.
The writer is a freelance columnist