Not content with probing attacks, the Taliban this week launched a large scale assault on Afghan National Army (ANA) and police forces in Ajrestan District of Afghanistan’s Ghazni province, where commanders say their units have been cut off and are battling for every inch of ground. By Friday the Taliban had killed over 100 people in the district and beheaded 12, a terror tactic they have used before. Reports say that around 700 militants are engaged in the fighting. Afghan officials say the goal of the attack is control of a crucial highway between Kabul and Kandahar that runs through Ghazni. Earlier this month the Taliban attacked a regional intelligence compound in Ghazni, using two massive truck bombs to force their way into the facility. Eight security personnel, two civilians and 19 militants were killed and 160 people were injured. The size and intensity of these attacks indicates the importance the Taliban place on controlling Ajrestan or wider parts of Ghazni province, which would allow them to disrupt Kabul’s communications with the south and south east of the country. Whether this is a strategic manoeuvre before winter sets in or whether there will be more attacks in coming days is unclear, but it may have been prompted by news of a political compromise in Kabul that ended months of political tension. The government will now present a united front against the Taliban. While fighting in Afghanistan traditionally takes a breather during the winter, the Taliban are not known for adherence to military timetables. Will they launch a surprise offensive before or soon after NATO troops fully withdraw? This current attack shows they are ready to begin fighting as soon as NATO’s presence is no longer a factor for them to calculate. Afghan officials have already admitted that the lack of air cover NATO usually supplies is proving a critical factor in the outcome of the battle. Afghan military units will need to be constantly prepared.
NATO’s departure in the light of this offensive is looking increasingly like a hasty retreat. Whether ANA units will be able to withstand such assaults is a life and death question given the performance of US-trained Iraqi army units who effectively handed militants the north of the country in July. After disbanding the professional Iraqi army because of its Baathist roots, the US raised a new army that crumbled despite the funds poured into it, over $ 25 billion. US President Barack Obama’s policy to end the wars begun by his predecessor George W Bush suffers from the same shortsightedness, i.e. instead of seeing the job through in Afghanistan he is choosing to abandon the government the US helped establish to its own fate. Does this mean the US will have to return to Afghanistan as it is now being forced to do in Iraq? That remains to be seen. What is clear is that in the interval the Kabul government will be fighting for its life. *