Speculation is rife about the future of Pakistan-India relations in the wake of Narendra Modi’s election ‘tsunami’ in India, which saw his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gain an outright majority in the Lok Sabha, the first since 1984. His campaign brought together disparate elements in India’s polity, gaining the support of the historically secular elite by focusing on his model for corporate-driven growth, and large numbers of poorer Indians by highlighting his background in a lower-caste household and his rags-to-riches story. His party proved how India’s electoral landscape has changed by overturning Congress’ dynastic domination with a well organised party workforce, steady canvassing, an effective and experienced public relations and image building team, and most importantly by side-stepping the issue of his communal proclivities and focusing on his agenda as a pragmatist. However, one should not make the mistake of assuming that avoiding the issue means it is not important. Narendra Modi is personally implicated in some of India’s gravest communal violence and his party has a fundamentalist — almost revanchist — Hindu-nationalist identity. Its association with India’s leading right-wing religious organisations is a concern for India’s minorities, particularly Muslims who worry they might be on the receiving end of a campaign for vengeance by Hindu fundamentalists for ‘1000 years of Muslim domination’ of the subcontinent. However, India’s internal politics are not Pakistan’s business and Indian Muslims and other minorities will have to figure out how to live with the Modi government through the democratic institutions available to them. From Pakistan’s point of view, the BJP has historically been more open to dialogue than Congress, partly because the latter has an almost personal vendetta against Pakistan stemming from the events leading up to and surrounding partition. The BJP is inclined to look at matters from a nationalist rather than personal perspective. Pakistani Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif has a history of engaging with BJP leaders, holding a historic meeting with former BJP PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, and peace with India is one of his top priorities. It was unsurprising but positive of Nawaz Sharif to extend his friendly congratulations to Narendra Modi on his victory and for the Indian PM-designate to return the favour by inviting Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration. Mr Sharif has accepted and while jumpstarting the moribund dialogue process is necessary, he must be cautious of the pitfalls involved.
Let us be clear, no matter how friendly the governments in Delhi and Islamabad may be with each other at any given moment, Pakistan and India are not friends. In fact the respective establishments in both countries largely view each other with loathing and enmity is the norm. India’s hegemonic regional ambitions are unpalatable to most Pakistanis, especially in the establishment. If not enemies, the two countries are at least rivals. Decades of institutional momentum need to be diverted in the opposite direction. This will not happen overnight. Making this clear from the outset of engagement is fundamental to beginning an honest relationship, which is the basis of trust. Pretensions of friendship will serve no one. Pakistan and India have legitimate grievances against each other that need to be resolved by beginning small and working upwards from there. The follow-up to this first engagement will be crucial and should begin with building the means for institutional cooperation on issues like cross-border terrorism and trade. Then too there is the danger of raising unrealistic expectations. Media scrutiny will be intense, with every word and handshake analysed, but it should not be allowed to determine the agenda or set the pace of the relationship. The PM cannot afford to let emotions get in the way of the practical business of the state. Politicians smiling for the cameras present a different reality to the often dark and unfriendly atmosphere in bureaucratic and diplomatic conference rooms where the details of modalities are discussed. The establishments in both countries are coming to the conclusion that cooperation is the only way to solve mutual problems, but built up mistrust needs to be alleviated through confidence building measures and regular interactions. The risks involved with this visit then are substantial, but it may be that the rewards will outweigh them. *