Locked in a political confrontation, the war of words between the government and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) continues to heat up with the PTI saying it cannot guarantee its November 30 protest will remain peaceful and the government pointing to past instances of the party’s duplicity to make a case for strong security measures in the capital. On Tuesday Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif met his senior aides to discuss the impending protest. Among the options discussed was promulgating an Ordinance to protect the Red Zone, making it illegal for more than five people to assemble in the high-security area. The Islamabad police forwarded a proposal for such an Ordinance to the Interior Ministry, which is under discussion. The government’s concern is that the courts will strike down the Ordinance as a violation of fundamental rights. The government is also waiting on the Supreme Court’s (SC’s) decision about forming a commission to investigate allegations of rigging in the 2013 elections and said that if a judicial commission asks for investigative help from Military Intelligence or other agencies, that would be within its purview. The SC has remained aloof from the political conflict except to hear petitions on the constitutionality of the government’s and PTI’s actions. However, last week an Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) in Islamabad issued non-bailable arrest warrants for several PTI leaders including Imran Khan. Warrants were also issued for Tahirul Qadri and some of his aides. Addressing the remnants of the PTI sit-in in Islamabad on Tuesday, Khan continued his tirade against the government, claiming it had bribed journalists and media houses and provided funds amounting to millions to the Intelligence Bureau to sabotage the PTI’s campaign, though he (as usual) provided no evidence to substantiate this. Earlier, Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid had accused Imran of inciting violence and provided video evidence of Khan’s speeches exhorting protestors to riot to illustrate the government’s predicament. The PTI has said it will not allow anyone to arrest Khan, creating a sticky situation for the government. The problem for the government is this: preventing Khan from holding his protest will almost certainly cause violence, but allowing the protest may lead to violence anyway. Khan’s statements and those of his allies have not been measured in tone or ambition. While he retracted his maximalist demand for the PM’s resignation, Khan still insists that the elections were rigged, the system is fraudulent and that there is no recourse for him but the street. What is more worrying is that his allies, notably Sheikh Rashid, continue using the PTI pulpit to make obviously inflammatory and hate-filled speeches but Khan adamantly refuses to accept the responsibility for keeping his protest peaceful. Should the protests go ‘out of control’, the responsibility would still lie with the organisers. The government is determined to prevent a repeat of events in August that damaged the country so deeply, hence the proposed Ordinance, but it cannot go too far in doing so either. With Section 144 and other administrative tools available to it, the idea of an Ordinance just for one protest raises questions. The government is seemingly committed to a ‘wait and see’ strategy to determine the course the PTI takes and respond accordingly. This comes back to what the PTI hopes to achieve by continuing protests. On the evidence available it appears that forcing a perception of victimhood is the only strategy Khan has and he is pushing the government to play into it by raising the level of tension ahead of the protest, hoping for an incident. This would be a desperate gamble to stay relevant after the failed sit-ins. On the other hand, an intelligent path for the PTI from this juncture would be to protest peacefully for a day or two and then call it quits, having regained something of the moral high ground. The variable that will decide the course is Imran Khan’s bloated ego. Should he choose to cut his losses and depart Islamabad, the country and his party will be better served, but if his megalomaniacal tendencies continue to dominate, November 30 could see another destabilising event for the country. *