Shelling across the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan has intensified to dangerous levels over the past few days. On Monday Pakistani and Indian forces traded fire along the Sialkot Working Boundary and the Jammu, Poonch and Samba districts along the LoC. Pakistani Rangers said they responded to “unprovoked” Indian shelling on Monday while Indian Border Security Force (BSF) personnel say they believe that Pakistani forces are providing cover fire for militants to infiltrate into India. By Wednesday 12 civilians had been killed on the Pakistani side, while on the Indian side eight people have been killed and 50 injured in the latest round of violence. Both sides report that a telephone conversation between the respective Deputy Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) ended with them hurling accusations at each other while India has so far refused Pakistani requests for a flag meeting made on the night of October 7. Indian forces have been told to reject any offer of talks at the border until all firing across the LoC stops. Reports say that India targeted 73 Pakistani border posts while Pakistan has targeted 47 Indian border posts; both sides claim to have given a “befitting response”. Shelling and skirmishes on the LoC have increased steadily over the summer. Reports say that there were 63 violations of the ceasefire in October alone, while there have been as many as 209 violations this year. Indian military officials say they believe that up to 700 militants are preparing to infiltrate along different areas of the LoC and that they have killed 17 militants over the last three days. The way these exchanges have historically worked over the last two decades is that Pakistan shells Indian positions to distract Indian security forces from militant infiltration into Kashmir. India responds with more enthusiasm than is necessary and targets Pakistani civilians, which then leads to more intense shelling from both sides. Militants end up infiltrating, the Indian armed forces get to look tough and everything goes back to normal. Shelling along the LoC is virtually a routine. However, the recent escalation has come in the wake of political changes on both sides of the border. In Pakistan the military has allegedly managed to wring key concessions from the civilian government including reportedly a change in policy towards India. Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif has a longstanding policy of normalising relations. However, the weakness of his position was made evident in his speech to the UN General Assembly, which presented hackneyed clichés about resolving the Kashmir issue according to UN resolutions instead of presenting a credible and modern picture of Pakistan’s stance. Indian PM Narendra Modi is widely seen as a hawk on Kashmir and his government’s stated position is a claim to the whole of Kashmir including areas under Pakistani control. Though this is seen as aimed at a domestic audience, Mr Modi has been willing to back it up with action. His government insists that the issue must be resolved bilaterally but at the same time cancelled secretary level talks in August aimed at kickstarting the faltering peace process. Along with a series of diplomatic snubs, such as refusing to meet Nawaz Sharif at the UN, this has fed a perception that the Modi government is unwilling to resolve the issue. Though infiltrating militants into Kashmir has never fully stopped, if efforts are intensifying that may be a result of this perception and will be aimed at either getting the Indian government to change its stance — unlikely at best — or force the issue into the international eye again. Either way is self-defeating since military solutions cannot work in a nuclear-armed region, while Pakistan lacks the developmental and diplomatic credentials to push its position multilaterally. Unlike in the past where better sense has prevailed, with a religious nationalist government in power in India and with Pakistan’s domestic security and political situation so fragile, the potential for any conflict to spiral out of control is high. Both sides need to remember that and put an end to this dangerous escalation. *