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Sri Lankan aid-sharing deal stirs political turmoil

By Amal Jayasinghe

Kumaratunga is not able to stand for re-election, but there is no restriction on her entering parliament as a lawmaker

SRI LANKA’S controversial deal with Tamil rebels to share tsunami aid could trigger snap elections and delay the resumption of Norwegian-brokered peace talks, analysts and diplomats said.

The Oslo-arranged “joint mechanism” to share tsunami relief was inked June 24 after months of secret talks but it split the coalition and gave a moribund opposition the power to make or break the government. Political analysts said the rightwing United National Party (UNP) was not expected to topple the minority regime immediately but would mobilise supporters to recover from its crushing defeat in April last year. “They will not rock the boat, they will not pull the plug till about September, October and thereafter we can see them make a move for elections,” political analyst Harry Gunatillake said.

Gunatillake, who has worked on President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s election campaigns in the past, argued she could try to cut her losses and stage a parliamentary election before the scheduled presidential vote later this year.

Sunanda Deshapriya, director of Centre for Policy Alternatives think tank, agreed.

“It is advantageous for the president to go for a parliamentary election and see if she can form another coalition, a more stable one,” Deshapriya said.

“I think she will make a move before the next budget in November. We will see elections soon.” The balance of power in the 225-member parliament shifted dramatically towards the opposition UNP last month when Kumaratunga’s main Marxist ally, the JVP, or People’s Liberation Front quit protesting the aid deal with Tigers.

The opposition immediately pledged to prop up the government from outside while promising not to endanger the aid deal or the fragile peace process.

However, opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe launched a protest march from the southern town of Dondra on Saturday to press for elections to salvage the troubled peace process.

Diplomats close to the process said Tiger rebels might be reluctant to resume negotiations, which have been suspended since April 2003 unless there was a stable government in Colombo.

“The challenge is to maintain the status quo,” a Western diplomat said. “For the moment, we see a wait-and-see approach by the Tigers.” Wickremesinghe hopes to revive peace talks if returned to power.

“The country needs an election, the people want a new leadership,” he told AFP at the weekend at the start of the march, due to end in the capital on July 12 with a major rally here. Wickremesinghe emerged as the leader of the largest single party in parliament last month when the JVP quit the coalition. “Ranil is now in the driving seat,” Gunatillake said. “He is eyeing the presidential election, but the president will not sit back. She will try to have a presidential election to make things difficult for him.”

Kumaratunga is not able to stand for re-election because she is on her second and final term, but there is no restriction on her entering parliament as a lawmaker.

Wickremesinghe said he did not want to rock the boat in parliament and bring the government down, jeopardising diplomatic efforts to salvage the peace process. But he has insisted on a presidential vote.

“I want a presidential election ... this year, but even if the president goes for a parliamentary election before that we are ready for it,” he said. A senior government member said Kumaratunga told them last week she would not call snap elections, but that the government was ready to face a poll. Compounding the problems for the president are the ongoing killings in the Island’s restive east and a deadline issued by the Tigers to step up security for their cadres travelling through government-held areas.

The rebels say if they don’t have a positive answer from the government by the middle of this month, the ceasefire that has been in place since February 2002 could collapse. afp

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