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UK fears Madrid-style election terrorism attack

By Michael Holden

‘If there is a group that is disposed to attack, and they have a current capability, this is the time they would do it’

GROUPS linked to Al Qaeda may try to take advantage of the run-up to a May 5 general election to stage an attack in Britain, terrorism experts say. There is a genuine risk of an atrocity similar to the Madrid train bombings, which had a direct result on the Spanish election last year, many believe.

“We must be aware that Al Qaeda will see the opportunity this year for a worldwide statement,” said Britain’s most senior policeman Sir Ian Blair. “There is a threat, a very serious potential threat.”

The morning rush-hour bombings on commuter trains in Madrid killed 191 people in the most devastating attack in modern Spanish history, just three days before a general election.

The attackers claimed to represent Al Qaeda in Europe. Analysts say Al Qaeda may view the bombings - which contributed to the defeat of centre-right Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar who had backed the war in Iraq and sent Spanish troops there - as a template for action in Britain. “They undoubtedly saw it as a great victory,” Paul Wilkinson, terrorism expert from St Andrew’s University, told Reuters. “The Al Qaeda network might want to achieve some sort of influence on the UK in that way.”

Dr Shane Brighton, from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, added: “If there is a group that is disposed to attack, and they have a current capability, this is the time they would do it.”

Critics have accused Prime Minister Tony Blair of using the fear of terrorism to scare voters into backing him for a third term in power, mirroring similar accusations levelled at George W Bush during last year’s US presidential election.

As he battled to get tough new security laws through parliament last month, Blair repeatedly issued grave warnings about the threat Britain faced.

“I think these people would kill thousands of our citizens if they could,” he said. “They will cause death and destruction on an unlimited scale and they will, and are, trying to organise such terrorist activity in our own country.” Homegrown extremists:

Britain says the main threat is posed by around 200 people based here who have been trained by Al Qaeda in Afghan camps for conflict in places such as Chechnya, Bosnia and Kosovo.

But Brighton said many of these actually had no inclination or little means of targeting Britain, and that it was “home-grown” Muslim extremists who were much more dangerous.

“The good news with them is it’s likely you are going to be fairly unsophisticated, you are not going to be well-trained,” he said. “The bad news is you may be able to do something before you come to the attention of the security services.”

Wilkinson said a threat of violence from Northern Ireland could not be ruled out either. The 30-year sectarian conflict in the province ended with a peace agreement in 1998, but a power sharing deal between Catholics and Protestants has been frozen for more than two years.

Since the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, more than 700 people have been arrested in Britain under security laws. Police say they have thwarted potentially serious attacks and over 200 have been charged in connection with such plots.

“The optimistic view is they have been sufficiently disrupted and deterred to make it difficult for them,” Wilkinson said. “The less optimistic prognosis is they may become more determined to succeed in carrying out some kind of attack.” reuters

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