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R E G I O N: US, India could gain from tsunami diplomacy

TOKYO: The huge aid effort for tsunami-hit areas of the Indian Ocean rim gives the United States, Japan, China and India a chance to improve their images as compassionate “soft powers” in a region where they compete for influence.

All four have pledged large amounts of aid in cash or kind and are sending top officials to Thursday’s tsunami aid summit in Jakarta.

But some analysts said Bush’s failure to speak publicly about the disaster and an early pledge of only $15 million meant a lost opportunity to repair an American image tarnished globally by post-Sept 11 policies and the Iraq war.

“They’re playing catch-up and blew an easy opportunity,” said Brad Glosserman, director of research at the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank.

Others, though, said the US mobilisation of massive funds and its military could improve Washington’s standing in the region and among Muslims generally, since many hard-hit areas have large Muslim populations.

“The fact that the sums have been quickly increasing is tied very much to the general goal of trying to improve the image of the United States as a compassionate world leader,” said Malcolm Cook, programme director for Asia and the Pacific at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney. “I would certainly think it is a good opportunity.”

Nearly 150,000 people were killed and millions have been left homeless or displaced by the Dec. 26 tsunami triggered by a magnitude 9 earthquake off Sumatra island.

Aid has been pouring into the region, particularly hardest-hit Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

The United States boosted its contribution to $350 million after accusations of being stingy. It has also mobilised its armed forces for relief work and launched a private charity drive to back one of the biggest aid efforts in history.

To help lead aid efforts, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the American president’s brother, are in Asia and will be attending the Jakarta tsunami summit along with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and other global leaders. Japan has pledged $500 million, a quarter of total global pledges of about $2 billion. While the amount was natural given Japan’s economic clout, analysts said it could be a timely reminder that Tokyo was a reliable regional partner despite a recent focus on China’s rise.

Beijing’s own promise of more than $60 million, a hefty sum for a developing country, has also served notice of China’s desire to forge friendlier ties with a region suspicious of its growing economic clout and strategic intentions, experts said.

If, however, Washington is too overt in casting its aid as a counter-terrorism measure in the region, the result could be a backlash, some analysts said.

“One always assumes that charity has an overall positive effect. You don’t need to spell out which particular effect,” said Wang Gungwu, director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore. Suspicions about US intentions have already surfaced in India, where some saw Washington’s decision to send as many as 1,500 Marines and an amphibious assault ship to Sri Lanka as an intrusion into India’s sphere of influence.

India, determined not to be seen merely as a victim after losing more than 15,000 of its own people to the disaster, moved quickly to send help to Sri Lanka and other countries.

For Japan, seen in recent years to be losing out to China in competition for regional leadership, a willingness to ante up and to mobilise its own military for relief efforts could bolster Tokyo’s flagging image among its neighbours, analysts said.

“This is not only something at which Japan can excel, but it’s a place where they can beat China, because China doesn’t have the assets or ability to deliver this, or the money to finance it,” CSIS’s Glosserman said. Still, China’s own contribution - on par with Canada and France - reflects its desire to play a bigger diplomatic role in the region and the world.

“China’s getting stronger makes countries feel not at ease, though they do not openly say that China is a threat. The new leaders want to change that impression, so they’ve given all this money,” said Jia Qingguo, a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University in Beijing. China might even end up with more applause for its assistance than Japan does for its far more massive aid, some analysts said, noting that Beijing won global kudos by refraining from floating its currency during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

“Even though Japan gave by far the most, China’s image was helped without giving much,” Cook said. reuters

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