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Britain sees its unspoken diplomatic strategy falling into place

By Anton La Guardia

LONDON: The resumption of weapons inspections in Iraq puts in place another element of Britain’s unspoken diplomatic strategy: the “dual containment” of Saddam Hussein and America’s hawks. Some senior British officials now talk of a prolonged inspection period that puts off the war indefinitely. “Iraq is not a global threat. It’s a regional threat,” said one senior Whitehall source. “The policy of containment, if done properly, is the most desirable. If Iraq can be contained, the risks of war will outweigh the benefits.”

His comment illustrates the underlying tensions between Washington and its only firm ally in the confrontation with Iraq. Many in the Bush administration want to take military action to topple Saddam by March, when the desert is cooler, regardless of the inspectors’ findings.

But Britain prefers to wait for a clear casus belli and appears less concerned than Washington by the prospect of allowing Saddam to play for time while inspectors search.

American hawks see the United Nations Security Council resolution on disarmament passed this month as a means to provide political cover and a trigger for war. But British officials, who never liked the idea of regime change, hope it will be a “safety catch” that will establish their preferred policy of containment.

UN weapons inspectors have steadily lengthened their timetable. They at first spoke of taking six months to assess Iraq’s weapon programmes, but on Wednesday they suggested that “a year should be a good time frame” to reach a judgment.Such comments will confirm the worst fears of hawks in the Bush administration, who have long argued that the UN route amounts to a “trap”.

Ever since the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1441, threatening Iraq with “serious consequences” if it does not comply with new conditions for disarmament, Britain has tried to soften the interpretation of the text.

America has made plain its “zero tolerance” of Iraqi violations, but Britain has insisted that breaches must be “serious” before they can trigger international action.

President George W Bush has told Saddam that he will enter the “final phase” of his rule if he continues to deny he has weapons of mass destruction. But Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary maintains that such a blatant lie must be accompanied by some other violation before it can be considered a “material breach”.

This month, Britain disowned White House claims that Iraqi attacks on allied aircraft patrolling “no-fly” zones already constituted a violation of Resolution 1441.

But if Mr Bush decides to take military action, it is almost unthinkable that Tony Blair would be left behind.Having committed so much personal prestige to getting rid of Saddam, Mr Bush will find it difficult to explain how he allowed him to survive once again.

As a senior Israeli source put it: “If Saddam is still in place this time next year, he will have won.” —LDT

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