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Iraq’s tribes may stand in the way of peace

By Faleh Jabar

War in Iraq could be followed by clashes among the forces of tribalism, nationalism, extremism and religious fundamentalism. The task of nation building in such a climate will be an enormous challenge. Saddam Hussein’s legacy will prove to be intricate and thorny

The staunch resistance encountered by the US-led coalition in Iraq is a bleak reminder that removing Saddam Hussein’s regime and changing the political climate in the country may prove far harder than ending the rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Iraq is ruled by a Ba’ath regime that has blended mass politics with traditional networks of clan and tribe, bonded by religion at home and Arab- ism abroad. The result is a cohesive ruling class united by blood ties, intermarriage, economic interests, ideological bonds and communal guilt. This ruling class comprises some 30,000 members of clan-like networks and 10,000 party apparatchiks. Its dominance conceals a number of forces in Iraqi society that will make rebuilding the country harder.

The first force is Iraqi nationalism, which has been held back by fear of the regime’s henchmen and the memory of being betrayed by the US in the February 1991 uprisings. The war generation in Iraq took the lead in the uprisings; the sanctions generation, a wilder lot in many ways, still has much to say. Nationalism can act as a cement to keep the nation together but may wreak havoc if manipulated by post-conflict powermongers.

The second force is extremism. Iraqis between 16 and 45, brought up on war and sanctions, are likely to be the most active in the days after the war. Deprived of institutional politics, shaped by violent experiences of the war and harbouring wild sensibilities, these people could cause mayhem that would dwarf the Lebanese civil war. They have little ideology and could be tempted into any illicit or destructive action that offered a reward.

Third is religious fundamentalism. Iraq has always been renowned for its civility. Early-20th-century travellers marvelled at Iraqi openness; compared with Iran or Saudi Arabia, Iraqi seems an oasis of secularism. But this tradition has been under threat in the past decade and there has been a sharp rise in popular religious sentiment during that time.

Out of sheer pragmatism, the regime deployed religious symbols during the Iraq-Iran war to combat Ayatollah Khomeini’s charismatic fundamentalism and inscribed “God is Great” on the Iraqi flag in the run-up to the 1991 Gulf war. During the years of sanctions, the government launched faith campaigns, closed bars and built more than 100 large mosques in Baghdad alone. The religious drive was intended to replace discredited Arab nationalism as an ideological force. Fundamentalist Wahabis seized the chance to send their preachers across the Saudi border, moralising against symbols of modernity such as television.

Ironically, secularism has also been undermined by the US itself. The US administration has empowered the Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq to represent the Shia muslim community. The council managed to overwhelm the London Iraqi opposition conference last December and stipulate Islamic law as “the” rather than “a” source of future legislation. Yet the council is not in the least representative of the Shia community as a whole, which is socially rich and culturally diversified. Rivalry between Sunni and Shia fundamentalism could create social divisions after the war and even split the country on fundamentalist lines.

The last force is tribalism. Iraq has traditionally been renowned for its rapid social development. Since the 19th century, the country has been dubbed the “graveyard” of tribes, for which Saudi Arabia was a haven. The disintegration of tribal structures continued until 1970, when Mr Hussein reversed the fortunes of the tribes. He promoted the inclusion of his clan into the state, and encouraged military tribalism among the Kurds. The regime also created a void by destroying other forms of civil association and subsuming them under Ba’ath party control. Old family and tribal networks have filled this void, particularly during the era of sanctions.

The ruling Leviathan soon latched on to the benefits of resurgent tribalism. The government has entrusted tribes with keeping law and order, collecting taxes, administering justice and the like. The most loyal tribes have even been entrusted with national security tasks. Some are now carrying out these tasks to perfection in the face of the US advance.

As a result, war in Iraq could be followed by clashes among the forces of tribalism, nationalism, extremism and religious fundamentalism. The task of nation-building in such a climate will be an enormous challenge. Saddam Hussein’s legacy will prove to be intricate and thorny. – Courtesy Financial Times

The writer is a research fellow of Birkbeck College, University of London. He is author of Ayatollahs, Sufis and Ideologues: State, Religion and Social Movements in Iraq

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