Indo-Pak peace process in danger

NEW DELHI: The peace process between India and Pakistan is in danger of dying a slow death, analysts say, with the new Congress-led government in Delhi neither inclined nor able to compromise over Kashmir.

Sonia Gandhi may have decided to renounce the prime minister’s job after her Congress party won a surprise election victory last month, but her influence still looms large over India’s new government.

And her Italian birth severely limits the coalition’s room to manoeuvre in talks over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, an issue deeply sensitive to many Indians and one where the right wing is ready to exploit the faintest sign of weakness. “You need very strong, confident, nationalist governments on both sides for this process to work,” said Daily Times editor Najam Sethi. “But that condition has been eroded by change of the government in India, not least because Sonia Gandhi is going to have to constantly fend off accusations of not being nationalist enough.”

Former Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee resuscitated the peace process between the neighbours last year, and brought his Hindu-nationalist government around to the idea of a fresh attempt to make peace. Vajpayee developed an unlikely rapport with President Pervez Musharraf, the two men united in their determination to explore the possibilities of peace and compromise over divided Kashmir.

In late May, President Musharraf reached for the phone to call India, apparently concerned that the peace process was going off the rails. But it was not Sonia Gandhi, nor new Prime Minister Manmohan Singh whose number he rang. Instead it was Vajpayee’s. It was a clear sign, analysts say, of the general’s confidence in his old interlocutor, and his misgivings about the new team. But there was little Vajpayee could do to help. His party may have started the peace process while in government, but in opposition they are likely to return to their nationalist roots, especially under the parliamentary leadership of the hawkish Lal Krishna Advani.

“The whole question of give and take with Pakistan will have to be thrown out of the window now,” a senior BJP member said shortly after their election defeat. “Sonia, a foreigner, can never convince this country to give anything to Pakistan.”

Perhaps conscious of its vulnerability, Congress has moved swiftly to protect its right flank, appointing two of its most hawkish foreign policy experts to lead it in talks with Pakistan. Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and National Security Adviser JN Dixit have both served in Islamabad and have learnt to be deeply suspicious of Pakistan from decades spent in the foreign service. The appointments were greeted with dismay in Islamabad.

“For Kashmir we need people with vision, a politician on the Indian side,” said Sethi. “We don’t need bureaucrats from the foreign office to talk to each other. All they have done all their lives is to sustain the status quo.” Natwar Singh did not take long to ruffle feathers in Islamabad when he declared just days after taking office that the 1972 Shimla agreement should be the bedrock of talks. Reference to that deal, which delineated the Line of Control between the opposing armies in Kashmir, was seen as a coded message there will be no territorial compromise from India and no choice but to adopt the old ceasefire line as the international border. It drew an angry response from his counterpart in Islamabad Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri.

“A solution based on the LoC is not acceptable. The status quo is part of the problem, not part of the solution,” he said. There is little doubt that Congress will struggle to sell any territorial concessions over Kashmir to the Indian people, says retired Pakistani General Talat Masood.

“But having said that, when it came to the resolution of Kashmir, the BJP would not have necessarily given any territorial concessions,” Gen Massod said. “I think it’s wishful thinking on the part of Pakistan to expect they would have been given some ground.” Gen Masood says Pakistan will not walk away from the negotiating table even if there is no early solution to the Kashmir dispute provided the two sides are still talking about the issue and provided there is progress in other areas.

For that reasons few commentators expect the peace process to go off the rails this year. But many see dark clouds further off. President Musharraf warned last week progress on Kashmir would have to go side-by-side with progress in other areas, and said the two sides should resolve their disputes within a “reasonable” time. “Congress does not want the situation to deteriorate, but on Kashmir they will drag their feet,” said Sethi. “And at some stage President Musharraf will get very impatient.” “If things do not get better next year, the likelihood is they will get worse,” he said. “Then demands on Musharraf grow to let loose the jihadis again, to see if pressure can force India back to the negotiating table.” reuters

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