Share this story!            

Russia caught in rumour mill

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Last week Moscow was full of rumours that Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov is soon to be removed and “promoted” to the position of chief of the presidential administration. Moscow’s overblown bureaucracy is almost always overflowing with rumours of someone’s impending ouster or promotion. The fate of any high-ranking bureaucrat or minister depends solely on the whim of the president. As a former KGB spy, Vladimir Putin is a secretive person who plays his cards close to his chest. Guessing Putin’s next political move is one of the most exciting games in town. Putin is known to meet with many different people offering very diverse advice and recommendations. Then one day he makes a decision that is often entirely unexpected, and commentators scramble to spin their previous opinions and predictions.

The closed nature of political and personnel decision making in the Kremlin leads to a situation in which rumours take on a life of their own, free of any meaningful connection with what is actually going on either in Putin’s head or in his private office.Several months ago it was rumoured that Ivanov would be ousted from the Defence Ministry and would return to being secretary of the Security Council. After hearing this rumour, I told some people in the so-called Moscow elite that it might be more appropriate for Putin to “promote” Ivanov to be the new chief of the presidential administration. It seems now that my careless remark has returned to me in the form of a “substantial rumour,” providing me with the subject of this week’s column. In fact, there are today no genuine indications that Ivanov’s ouster or promotion is imminent. Of late, Ivanov often has not been singing from the same songsheet as his boss in the Kremlin (for example, on how much to support the United States after Sept. 11), but each time Ivanov has quickly clarified his position.

Two years ago, Putin gave Ivanov the task of preparing plans to reform the military i.e. the Defence Ministry forces, Interior Ministry forces, border guards and so on. Ivanov got off to a promising start. Not only did he say the right thing publicly about the need to have a smaller, more professional armed force, but he also made some revolutionary public revelations.

For a decade since the demise of the Soviet Union, generals have been announcing ongoing “cuts” in the military. By 1999 it was officially announced that there were 1.2 million servicemen in the armed forces. I knew that this was a bare-faced lie, but could only cite unofficial sources and my own estimates to back up my assertion. Ivanov officially disclosed for the first time that there were 2.3 million men in active service as of January 2001. When, soon afterward, Putin appointed Ivanov defence minister one might have expected more revelations regarding the miserable state of the overmanned, underfinanced military — and with these revelations, a start to meaningful reform to reverse the decay..

However, after taking over command of the Defence Ministry, Ivanov stopped releasing “true” figures. Just like most of his recent predecessors, he whines in public that the Defence Ministry does not have enough money, while reform is stagnating. Disgruntled men in uniform believe Ivanov to be a total failure. Kvashnin has recently been actively undermining his boss by announcing publicly that the military is in a “post-critical state” and is swiftly turning into an armed rabble that is stealing weapons, selling them to rogues and so on.

The deepening crisis in the military means that one day Ivanov will have to go. But when will Putin decide that enough is enough and replace Ivanov with another incompetent, such as Kvashnin? Putin may have already decided the date and time, but just try and read it on his poker face.

So, in the meantime, there is only one option, and that is to track the rumours around town. —The Moscow Times

Home | Foreign

Share this story!