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Taiwan-US ties floundering over referendum issue, say analysts

TAIPEI: The scrapping of Taiwan’s plan to send a mission to the United States to discuss the controversial referendum issue is another signal of stranded Taipei-Washington ties, analysts say.

It has also dealt a blow to President Chen Shui-bian ahead of bitterly contested presidential elections, they suggest. The announcement of delaying the US mission caught the media totally unprepared, coming just days after the Presidential Office briefed reporters on the planned trip.

Joseph Wu, head of the US-bound delegation and also a deputy secretary general in the Presidential Office, claimed: “Based on an evaluation of the National Security Council, the delegation will not be able to gain the expected results, so we decided to delay the trip.”

The US mission, made up of officials and academics, had been set to leave on Monday for New York, Boston, Washington and San Francisco for discussions with US think-tanks and the media on the referendum.

But analysts said the aborted US mission was another sign of the estranged Taipei-Washington ties after Chen raised the idea of holding the landmark referendum alongside the March 20 presidential polls to oppose the deployment of hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting the island.

“My feeling is that Washington does not know what Taiwan wants to convey by sending the group to the United States ... after the bilateral mutual trust has been undermined,” said Emile C J Sheng, political science professor of Soochow University.

Chen’s announcement late last year of plans to hold the referendum provoked a startling rebuke from US President George W. Bush and anger from China, which considers the island part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

“We oppose any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo,” Bush said after talks with visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

“And the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose,” Bush added.

Despite Bush’s remarks, Chen has pledged to go ahead with the landmark vote, a move sparking more warnings from Washington, although Taipei has repeatedly guaranteed that the referendum has nothing to do with independence and is a symbol of Taiwan’s fully-fledged democracy.

Sheng said Taiwan must take responsibility “as Taipei has harmed its credit by abusing its own promises to the United States”.

“Chen promised ‘five nos’ not to seek independence, but lately he said it is gone. After all Beijing has deployed a mass arsenal opposite the island. No wonder that resulted in US suspicions,” he said. Chen’s chief aide Chiou I-jen admitted for the first time earlier this week that Taipei was yet to convince Washington over its long-term policy beyond the March 20 referendum, which has infuriated China.

Both Washington and Beijing fear the referendum could be Taiwan’s first step towards independence, which the Chinese leaders have pledged to crush by force.

Sheng said Washington must have felt unhappy that Chen had been cashing in on its triangle ties with Washington and Beijing as Chen knew Washington could not ditch Taiwan.

“There may be room for him to manoeuvre, but he has to be very careful not to hurt the United States,” the island’s leading arms supplier despite a lack of diplomatic recognition, Sheng said.

Analysts said that to date the sensitive issue had put Chen in an unfavourable situation whatever he opted to do — either backing down under US pressure or holding the referendum and ignoring Washingtonn’s warnings.

“The row with the United States is definitely a setback to Chen,” said Chang Lin-cheng, political science professor of National Taiwan University.

“Whatever he chooses to do, it would prove to the public that Chen is a leader without a broad international perspective,” she said. —AFP

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