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All set for polls today

By Rana Qaisar

ISLAMABAD: All is set for general elections as the nation goes to the polls for the eighth time today (Thursday) since 1970 to elect the seventh National Assembly in which no mainstream political party is expected to get even a simple majority this time and the average turn-out is likely to be around 35 percent in view of the lackluster nature of the campaigns.

While the 1977 elections were declared null and void by General Ziaul Haq after imposing Martial Law on the pretext of massive rigging charges against Z A Bhutto, none of the subsequent assemblies, including the one elected on the basis of non-party elections in 1985, was able to complete its five-year tenure.

The Pakistan People’s Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-QA), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of six religio-political parties which are for the first time contesting from one platform, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party (ANP) are among the 78 political parties participating in today’s elections.

Other prominent political parties also participating in the elections are: the five-party National Alliance (NA) comprising the Millat Party and Sindh Democratic Alliance (SDA); the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI); Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT); Pakistan People’s Party-Shaheed Bhutto (PPP-SB) and Pakistan People’s Party-Sherpao (PPP-S).

The main contest remains among the PPPP, PML-QA, PML-N and MMA at the national level with the PPPP and PML-QA being the only two mainstream parties running neck to neck on the eve of the elections in the race to form a government with the collaboration of like-minded political forces.

Political analysts suggest that the PML-QA and PPPP may secure 80-100 national assembly general seats each, the MMA 15-20, the PML-N 25-35, and the rest of the seats will be shared by other political parties and independent candidates.

However, some political observers believe that the PPPP may get more seats than any other party because the split in the PML has divided its vote bank between the N and QA factions with all religious parties votes’ this time going to the MMA instead of the PML-N.

While the PML-QA, PPPP, PML-N and MMA are poised to win seats where there is no direct contest among them, there are at least 60 constituencies where there is going to be a tough fight and the situation remains unpredictable. This, according to political observers, will be the deciding factor.

The parliament coming into being this time will be a different one from those in the past as all its members will be graduates at least. Also, for the first time since 1988, the two former prime ministers –Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif — and a number of former chief ministers and senior parliamentarians along with many others will not be contesting because they have been barred on one charge or the other by the new laws.

In 1997 elections, the PML-N had won 137 seats in the house of 207, PPP 18, independents (including eight FATA members) 21, ANP 10, BNP 3, Haq Parast Group (HPG, the then Muhajir Qaumi Movement) 12, JUI-F 2, JWP 2, NPP 1, and PPP-SB 1.

This time the elections for national and all provincial assemblies are being held on the same day with a total of 72 million (72,017,234) registered voters, including 5.2 million (5,276,844) between the age of 18 to 21 years, to exercise their right to franchise. A total of 2,098 candidates are contesting for 272 national assembly general seats, 2,386 for 297 Punjab assembly seats, 1,561 for 130 Sindh assembly seats, 642 for 99 NWFP assembly seats, and 521 for 51 Balochistan assembly seats.

The elections are being held on the basis of the joint electorate system also, with 10 seats reserved for minorities in the national assembly. Similarly, it is also for the first time that seats have been reserved for women in the national and provincial assemblies to give them adequate representation in decision-making.

Although the military government has promised to hold free, fair and transparent elections, the atmosphere is polluted with the allegations of pre-poll rigging and government support for the “King’s Party”, a combination of PML-QA and the National Alliance.

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