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analysis: Transition in a time of conflict —Abbas Rashid

Surely, it is obvious that for the president at this time it is preferable to many other options to cede power to a prime minister from his own party. And this stands regardless of the role the court may play in the coming days with regard to the NRO

President Asif Zardari on Wednesday may have chosen the right occasion but struck the wrong note in taking on his detractors. This was not someone keeping above the fray while pushing back with the measure of confidence and equanimity expected of a head of state. In a strident address to a sizeable gathering on a day marking the 43rd anniversary of the founding of the PPP, the president zeroed-in on ‘political actors’ and a particular TV channel that he said was seeking ‘monopoly’ rates he was unwilling to entertain. The narrative of defiance, bravery and sacrifice on the part of the Bhuttos and the party was another dominant motif. In the process, the achievements of the government such as clarity on the need to take on the militants or the Balochistan package, though mentioned, found limited room in the address. In any case, whatever the measure of unfair criticism of the government, it cannot be denied that on many counts the criticism is also warranted and justified. And regardless of the balance sheet, the minimum the president needs to do at this stage is to take the necessary steps for undoing the 17th amendment, something to which he stands committed and on which he has tarried far too long. In a parliamentary set-up he is obliged to transfer the key powers he enjoys to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.

It could be that this is what the president has in mind and the stridency was only to demonstrate that such a move will not be made under pressure or out of fear. In which case, it was unnecessary to remind the prime minister that he was asked to take the reins of this august office in the name of Benazir Bhutto. Surely, it is obvious that for the president at this time it is preferable to many other options to cede power to a prime minister from his own party. And this stands regardless of the role the court may play in the coming days with regard to the NRO. However, let us also keep in mind that the PPP is a party with a presence throughout the federation and that everyone has a stake in a relatively smooth transition.

Pakistan is no stranger to difficult situations but the current juncture seems particularly fraught with ominous portents. The convergent forces of terrorism and insurgency obviously pose the most serious challenge. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has suffered serious losses even though it is far from having been vanquished. The success has come at a high price. Finally having been given a clear direction, the soldiers and junior officers have fought valiantly and many have lost their lives in the process. The nation owes them a debt of gratitude. We also need to be much more mindful of the hundreds of thousands of civilians, including women and children, displaced from their homes in the area, who have been forced to live in trying circumstances as they struggle to make do with minimal food and shelter. The TTP with its indiscriminate killing spree throughout the country has amply demonstrated that it is the most serious threat to Pakistan. We have already seen the fate of previous peace deals between the army under Musharraf and the militants. As such, peace cannot be made synonymous with surrender and the state this time must only negotiate from a position of strength.

Meanwhile, developments across the border can make our task even more formidable. Even if the Obama administration opts for a troops surge as a prelude to a phased withdrawal, the ranks of those in the US who see al Qaeda rather than the Taliban as a threat to their country have risen sharply and more ‘boots on the ground’ cannot be a response to the former. In any case, a US occupation force is not a solution for Afghanistan as we have seen over the years. The problem, of course, is what happens to the people of Afghanistan if the resurgent Taliban pick up from where they had left off many years ago?

The other important external factor is the by and large unhelpful response on the part of India to Pakistan’s overtures for a resumption of meaningful dialogue between the two countries. It was encouraging, then, to have Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on a high-profile state visit to the US talk about being “ready to pick up the threads of the dialogue including on issues related to Jammu and Kashmir”. But it still seems to be a conditional offer and was preceded by the Indian army chief stating that a limited conventional war between India and Pakistan could not be ruled out. This may well be posturing but if so, given the high stakes for the region, it is certainly the wrong time to be carrying on in this vein. A regional consensus on Afghanistan must incorporate an understanding between Pakistan and India so that the country does not become an arena for a destructive zero-sum game between the two once the foreign troops have withdrawn.

Amidst all this Pakistan desperately needs an effective counter-terrorism strategy to fight the battle being carried by the militants to its cities and population centres. The relentless targeting of Peshawar in recent days is indicative of their designs. If such a strategy is in place, it is not entirely obvious. To take one instance, there is the case of importing scanners from China to detect explosive-laden vehicles from a distance. There have been reports in the press about the scanners eventually imported being of an inferior quality and other reports have warned about the danger of radiation and so on. All of this should be investigated. But, a key point that needs consideration here is that the decision was taken when President Zardari visited China in October 2008. Assuming that it will be any day now, it would have taken more than a year since then for the first of the scanners to become operational. Someone needs to explain this.



Postscript: ‘The next generation’ report issued recently reflects despondency, a loss of faith in democracy and apprehension for their future among Pakistan’s youth. Even with the many incidents of terrorism across the country the survey shows that inflation and unemployment top the other concerns by a wide margin. It should serve as a wake up call for the nation’s political parties as well as the establishment. It is time to work towards a more equitable society — to spend on bread and butter rather than guns — if the confidence of our youth is to be restored and this nation sustained.

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore and can be contacted at abbasrh@gmail.com

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