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ENVIRONMENT: Disappearing glaciers —Iftikhar Gilani

It is time for both India and Pakistan to redefine their strategies and attend to this issue, which has far reaching consequences for their people

Half a billion people in the Himalaya-Hindukush region and a quarter billion downstream who rely on glacial melt waters could be seriously affected by what is happening to the glaciers. The current trends in glacial melt suggest that the Indus and other rivers may become seasonal rivers in the near future as a consequence of climate change with important ramifications for the economies in the region.

Last year, a team from The Energy Research Institute of India (TERI) visited Kashmir to study some of these glaciers. The team, led by Professor Iqbal Hassnain, was accompanied by an expert from Iceland and concentrated their studies on the Kolahoi glacier in the Pahalgam area, the largest in the valley. They also reported accelerated melting of glaciers.

An Action Aid report has also warned that melting of Kashmiri glaciers could trigger massive food security problems in the near future. It said some glaciers have already disappeared as a result of which discharge in streams has significantly gone down.

The report, a study identifying the impact of climatic change at the micro-level, said a 21 percent overall reduction has been found in the glacier surface area of the Chenab, a sub-basin of the Indus. Of the 327 major glaciers in the Himalayas, 60 are in Kashmir and Ladakh. According to the report, while some glaciers have vanished, the surviving ones are fast shrinking. In the Sindh valley, for instance, the Najwan Akal glacier has disappeared, and the surviving trio — Thajwas, Zojila and Naranag — have considerably shrunk. The one feeding the Amarnath cave has reduced by over 100 meters in one year. Similarly, the Afarwat glacier near Gulmarg has ceased to exist, though once it happened to be 400 meters long.

The report says this is happening everywhere, from north to south. Almost all the major glaciers in south Kashmir — Hangipora, Naaginad Galgudi and Wandernad — are shrinking. It carries no supporting data, which in certain cases was available with certain official agencies.

Barring certain water bodies that are spring-fed, most of the streams of Indus water system are glacier-fed. Since early melting triggers massive discharge in rivers, the water bodies lack the adequate quantity once agricultural activity begins. The report says that while snow and rainfall have reduced, temperatures have risen a bit. Early melting triggers flash floods, and fall in water discharge impacts agricultural production, which according to the report is otherwise affected by arbitrary land use.

The report has tried to link the possibility of heat-trapping gases in Kashmir’s “almost closed environment” with the melting of glaciers and other indications of climatic change. Kashmir’s forest area has shrunk considerably, from 37 percent of its total area to merely 11 percent now. Barely 20 years ago, the snow line to the Kashmir valley’s east was just above areas like Pahalgam and Sonmarg (3,200 meters). “Currently the line has receded to Shiashnag area which is at an altitude of 5,000 meters only. Same is true of the Pirpanjal mountain range in the west where the snow line was above Kongwatan and Zaznar (3,000-3,500 meters)”.

Most of the glaciers of the Great Himalayan range, from Harmuk to Drungdrung, including Thajiwas, Kolahoi, Machoie, Kangrez and Shafat, have significantly receded (4,000-5,000 meters) over the last 50 years. According to testimonies of villagers in the Choolan area, located in the Shamasbari mountain range in north Kashmir, the nearby glacier, Katha, has reduced from 200 feet to 80 feet over the last 40 years. Similarly, people living around Tangmarg and Gulmarg in North Kashmir say the Budrukot glacier in the area has reduced from 16 feet to only 5 feet in height over the years.

The Khujwan glacier in the mountains of the Kichama area has reduced from 40 feet to only 20 feet over the years. The Afarwat glacier around the Nambalnar Hajibal area, which used to be 300 feet long 40 years ago, has completely disappeared.

Fifty years ago, the Chenab basin used to have about 8,000 sq km under glaciers, permanent and ephemeral snow cover which would contribute huge quantities of water during summer to this river through numerous perennial tributaries as compared to the present 4,100 sq km under snow cover. In the Pirpanjal range, there is hardly any glacier remaining at the top of this mountain range; the terminal morains at Akhal (Rajpora) on the Romshi river, Dubjan on the Rambiyara river and Gurwatan on the Veshuv river bear testimony to the fact that glaciers once extended up to these places in the recent past. If the situation continues like this, all rivers flowing from the Pirpanjal range will lose their perennial status and will become ephemeral.

On the ground, the picture may be even more horrific than portrayed here. Terrorism may be the biggest threat to innocent lives in the region, but the environmental catastrophe will affect generations and cost more lives than any other threat. Therefore, it is surprising that these issues have not received much attention in the diplomatic circles of India and Pakistan.

It is imperative for both neighbours to evolve a mechanism beyond the Indus Water Treaty and hold water-sharing talks to save the sources of water. There is greater need to set up a cooperative mechanism to govern and protect resources across the Line of Control. One cannot expect the Indian exchequer to spend on the protection of resources where India is not directly benefiting. It is Pakistan and its farmers who have a vested interest in the protection of such resources in Kashmir.

Another way out could be to expand the mandate of SAARC to prioritise greater cooperation on environmental issues. There is also need to set up monitoring committees for resource management. Still another way to foster environmental cooperation could be to expand knowledge and data sharing mechanisms.

Security is no more confined to national security threats or international relations. Environmental changes are now being listed as security threats. Richard Ullman defined threat as “...anything which can degrade the quality of life of the inhabitants of a state, or which narrows the choices available to people and organisations within the state.” It is time for both India and Pakistan to redefine their strategies and attend to this issue, which has far reaching consequences for their people.

This is the concluding article in a two-part series. The first part appeared yesterday

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