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Tribal push needed to quash Taliban

* Analysts say Pakistan Army does not want to go into Waziristan until certain of ‘walk over’

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may be buoyed by a push against the Taliban in Swat, but analysts warn the threat cannot be eliminated without a determined assault against the Taliban entrenched in the tribal belt.

Three suicide car bombings that left 28 people dead in the northwest in the past week show a new Taliban leadership willing and able to inflict carnage, while key Taliban chiefs remain at large despite multiple offensives. For years, the military has oscillated between launching offensives against insurgents and signing peace deals with their leadership holed up in the Tribal Areas.

But the march of the Taliban across the one-time tourist hub of Swat and its neighbouring districts, advancing to within 100 kilometres of Islamabad in April this year, sparked a fierce air and ground onslaught. With more than 2,140 Taliban reported killed, the government in early July said the valley was almost cleared of the Taliban threat.

Next in the military's sights was Khyber Agency, the fabled land route into Afghanistan and the main supply line for the more than 100,000 US and NATO troops fighting in Afghanistan.

Helicopter gunships and paramilitaries thrust into Khyber on September 1, targeting Lashkar-e-Islam, a homegrown militia led by Mangal Bagh, which has loose links to the Taliban. Military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said the operation was essential as Taliban fleeing other offensives in Swat and nearby districts "were coming and taking refuge in this agency".

Analysts and local residents, however, question how successful the Khyber operation has been when no high-profile targets have been captured or killed. "Everybody knows where Mangal Bagh is living – why don't they go after him and target him?" Khyber resident Jamil Afridi told AFP.

Now the army claims to be mopping up there and looming on the horizon is the prize of North and South Waziristan – the main bastions of the Taliban leadership and also a hideout and training ground for Al Qaeda fighters.

"In the case of Khyber, the army thinks they succeeded easily. However, in areas like South Waziristan, their strategy is different," said Hasan Askari, a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University. "They don't want to get in there until they are very sure of a walk-over". The timing of any Waziristan offensive remains a mystery. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to visit Pakistan in, which may prove to be a possible catalyst for a Pakistan keen to impress its Western ally.

The military has already launched sporadic air assaults in the area and blockaded roads, and Abbas said they are keen to exploit infighting after Taliban warlord Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a US missile strike in August. "If its weakening your adversary then the better strategy is first to allow that weakness to be fully settled there... so it will be a matter for military judgement what is the right time for the ground offensive," said Abbas. The big question is whether the military has the manpower to push into Waziristan while sustaining a presence in Swat, where the army has vowed to stay until April 2010. afp

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