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WASHINGTON DIARY: Conditional aid —Dr Manzur Ejaz

Pakistan’s foreign aid-dependent economy cannot come out of the current crisis without assistance. But foreign help is contingent on Pakistan’s resolve to fight the jihadis

Mr Shaukat Tareen, finance advisor to the prime minister, has complained that the US has not paid Pakistan for its anti-terror campaign since last April, It is an indication that the US is trying to emulate Islamabad’s own tactics, namely, ‘never say no and do whatever you feel like.’

In addition, the World Bank’s undeclared internal determination to designate Pakistan as non-creditworthy and the US indifference to this matter also show similar policy preferences. It is very difficult to know how long this game of cat-and-mouse will last and how Pakistan will be affected.

On the diplomatic front, US officials’ visits to Islamabad have been more frequent in the last twelve months. Vice President-elect Joseph Biden’s visit further highlights American concerns about Pakistan and the war against terrorism. The US has also helped Pakistan in the recent post-Mumbai Indo-Pak hostilities. Of course, the US is looking after its own interests, but Pakistan has certainly benefited from the American approach after the Mumbai attacks. Nevertheless, the US is not helping Pakistan to come out of the economic squeeze.

The US is also dragging its feet when it comes to delivering the dearly needed economic assistance in response to the way Pakistan half-heatedly pursues the war on terror. The Taliban’s grip on large parts of the NWFP and FATA has been tightened. In many areas, the Taliban have consolidated their power by establishing their own governing institutions. Evidently, either the Pakistani state is incapable of controlling the Taliban onslaught or it lacks the will to do so, or both. In any case, the US and the rest of the world views Pakistan as the most dangerous place in the world, even more than Afghanistan.

After the Mumbai attacks, the whole world was convinced that the terrorists went from Pakistan to India. However, while the Pakistani government has been flip-flopping on every step of the process, the hawks in the media and other important places have been whipping up war hysteria.

Pakistan may couch its denials in legal terms but the world is at loss to understand why it took so long to admit that Ajmal Kasab was from Pakistan even after the Pakistani media had interviewed his family. If the purpose was to tell India that it cannot dictate terms, Pakistan may have found other ways rather than straight denials of facts. Incidentally, India’s superpower-like attitude in the Mumbai episode had to be countered, but outright denials were not the preferred way.

The US has enough proof of the use of Pakistani soil in terrorist attacks. It has expressed its assessment on diplomatic levels many times but Pakistan has not got its act together. It is still vacillating between illusionary self-denial and coming to grips with reality. Probably, an intense power struggle on the issue of jihad and a tussle over the respective domains of different power players are also creating an embarrassing situation for diplomats who interface with the rest of the world. Other than Pakistanis, no one else has any doubt over the facts relating to terrorists.

After 9/11, the US was financially supporting Pakistan, ignoring its allegedly doubtful relations with the jihadis. However, a year ago, the US Senate started asking questions about the use of money given to combat Al Qaeda and Taliban and other related matters. Consequently, the Bush Administration was forced to cut back on financial assistance and adopt a dual policy towards Pakistan, intensifying diplomatic contacts but not helping the faltering economy.

The most significant indirect indicator is the way the World Bank and the IMF treat Pakistan. The US Treasury Department plays a great role in this regard. The IMF granted a loan to Pakistan for the balance of payments on US prodding. The US and other economic powers have a financial interest in not letting Pakistan fall off the cliff in the balance of payments. However, the World Bank has different preferences in funding projects in countries like Pakistan. Sources close to the Bank have indicated that Pakistan is not considered creditworthy any more, and the institution will not be funding new projects in Pakistan.

Of course, Pakistan will continue to receive a billion dollars annually from the International Development Association (IDA) on the basis of need. However, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IRBD), the main body publicly known as ‘The World Bank’, is not providing any new loans to Pakistan. Previous committed assistance may continue to flow.

The most important aspect of this development is that the US Treasury Department has not put its foot down to support Pakistan. Therefore, one can infer that the US has chosen to stand by as the Pakistani economy degenerates.

If our reading of the current US policy parameters is valid, then the logical conclusion would be that Pakistan will not be helped economically unless it resolves its contradictory stance towards jihadis of all kinds. A few months ago, Pakistan’s top leadership made frantic trips to different capitals of the economic powers to get assistance without any success. Even the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, flew to the same places on the heels of the civilian leadership. But no one was ready to bail us out and Pakistan had to accept the IMF loan that it had abhorred earlier. It means that the every country in the position to help Pakistan has laid down US-like conditions.

Pakistan’s foreign aid-dependent economy cannot come out of the current crisis without assistance. But foreign help is contingent on Pakistan’s resolve to fight the jihadis. The Pakistani leadership should wake up and smell the coffee.

The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com

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