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‘Pakistan needs economic assistance urgently’

* Six months may be too late as Zardari’s popularity falls: Lieven

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: Senator Joe Biden’s long-term plan for the United States to help Pakistan economically is a vital American interest, not just because of the role of Pakistani Pashtuns in supporting the Taliban’s campaign in Afghanistan, but because Pakistan itself risks becoming a source of threats to the West that will vastly outweigh those from Afghanistan.

According to Anatol Lieven, writing in the International Herald Tribune, the fear is that by the time a new US administration has begun to work out its plans, it will be next spring, which may be too late, some Pakistanis feel. “If the government here cannot do something serious to help the population economically within six months, it will be finished,” a newspaper editor told Lieven. The new president Asif Ali Zardari is seen as too pro-American. His government’s prestige is being damaged still further by intensifying American raids into the Tribal Areas.

The main opposition party will try to exploit all this as much as it possibly can. Nawaz Sharif’s popularity has soared in recent months, partly due to his opposition to Pakistani help to the Americans in Afghanistan and criticism of the Pakistan Army’s campaign against the insurgents.

This does not mean that the United States should treat Nawaz as an enemy. If he comes to power, he will probably follow a course of pragmatic co-operation with Washington. Nonetheless, initially at least, his return to power would be a blow to US-Pakistani co-operation.

Lieven, who is currently in Pakistan to research a book, points out that the people of Pakistan are suffering from the twin effects of the surge in the international price of oil and the surge in international food prices. Electricity cuts, meanwhile, have reached 16 hours a day in some areas. The most immediate problem, he said however, is that the state cannot pay some $1.4 billion in debts to the power companies, which in turn do not have the money to import necessary fuel. He suggests that the US should make these funds available to Pakistan immediately for this specific purpose. It should also give emergency aid to those displaced by the military offensives in Bajaur. America should also use its influence with the IMF to procure its assistance to Pakistan, but it should not be made conditional on cuts in subsidies and social programmes that will further hurt the poor. Lieven said Limited American financial help can tide Pakistan over its immediate crisis. At the same time, the US should craft longer-term aid programmes to strengthen resistance to the spread of insurgency in the NWFP. The sums involved are miniscule compared to those spent by Washington on the war in Afghanistan. Reliance on purely military means will be the surest way for America to lose it.

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