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PPP and PML-N set for clash in Punjab battlefield

By Amjad Warraich`

LAHORE: Despite claims they will not harm each other’s governments, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are bound to clash in the near future – and the apparent battlefield will be the Punjab.

PML-N President Mian Shahbaz Sharif heads the Punjab government, supported by 171 legislators from the PML-N, 107 from the PPP, three from the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F) and two from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F).

The PPP is not in a hurry to withdraw its support for the Punjab government, which will turn into a minority government the moment the PPP decides to quit it.

In a house of 342, 186 members are required for a simple majority. The PML-N is still short of 16 MPAs. The only force that can help it out is the 36-member Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) forward bloc, but majority of the splinter group’s members are hanging in the balance. They are weighing both the parties and will join the one that they think will serve their interests better.

There is a big question mark on how the PML-N will make the PML-Q members defect. The party will have to face allegations of horse-trading if the PML-Q turncoats join it. This can provide the PPP with an excuse to impose governor’s rule in the province.

A safe method will be to make the PML-Q turncoats resign and contest fresh elections from the PML-N platform. There are two problems with this approach: first, the PML-N may not have enough time to go through such a long procedure, with things likely to change at an extra-ordinary pace during the next few weeks; second, there is no guarantee that the PML-N will win all the seats in the by-elections.

The Sharif brothers’ decision to give all-out support to the lawyers’ movement and help it stage sit-ins all over Pakistan on Thursday will widen the rift between the two parties. The PPP will have to retaliate, or its survival in Islamabad will become extremely difficult.

The stance of the three PML-F and two JUI-F members is not yet clear. PML-F Punjab leaders have close contacts with the leadership of both the PPP and the PML-N. But its chief Pir Pagara’s decision to remain neutral in the presidential election and the fact that PML-F Punjab Parliamentary Leader Makhdum Ahmad Mahmood is Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s cousin go in the PPP’s favour.

Although JUI-F chief Fazlur Rehman has expressed reservations against both Nawaz and Zardari, considering his track record it can be predicted safely that he will ultimately opt for the PPP.

Under these circumstances, the PML-N has limited options to survive in the Punjab. There are no chances of a repetition of the 1988 scenario – when the presidency and the armed forces gave Nawaz full support to challenge then PPP government in the centre. The presidency will now be under the PPP’s control with its Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari an elected head of the state. Unlike 1988, Nawaz also faces a hostile judiciary now because he has opposed the sitting judges. This makes his Punjab government vulnerable.

According to sources, the PPP will not announce withdrawal of its support for the Shahbaz government for the confusion to continue, but will keep on working on other political parties to muster support in the Punjab Assembly on the pretext of campaigning for Zardari’s presidential election.

After the PPP has done its homework, its governor in the Punjab may ask Shahbaz to take a new vote of confidence. The Sharifs will have no other option but to seek support from the PML-Q forward bloc, a move that can prove an excuse for governor’s rule.

The PML-N cannot afford a governor’s rule as if it is imposed, new elections will be held under the PPP government in Islamabad, a scenario in which the PML-N is not guaranteed to win once again.

The only safe way the PML-N is left with is to approach the PML-Q for support in the Punjab Assembly. It is perhaps for this reason that the PML-N has started working on the PML-Q, assigning Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan to contact its leadership, with the excuse of campaigning for the presidential elections.

A major problem with this option is that the Chaudhrys are not ready to side with any party without getting the lion’s share in power – in this case the government of the Punjab – which the PML-N can never offer them.

The position of leader of the opposition in the National Assembly may have been a bargaining chip for Nawaz seeking support from the Chaudhrys, but he has already announced he wants someone from his party to hold the office.

Ostensibly, the PPP has more to offer to the Chaudhrys than the PML-N.

There are rumours that the PML-N leadership is thinking about dissolving the Punjab Assembly to discredit the presidential election, but the option is not viable in the current circumstances.

For the Sharifs, the going is likely to get very tough in the near future.

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