A brewing political crisis?

By Rana Qaisar

ISLAMABAD: The 45th (opposition-requisitioned) session of the Senate started on Monday almost two hours behind the scheduled time amid clouds of (political) uncertainty thickening and lowering over the federal capital with lots of gossip about a “big” change being forecast by “know-all” pundits. The timeframe being given is just a couple of months.

But it all depends on the “make-or-break” meeting, which will take place today, between the real prime minister, Asif Ali Zardari, and Mian Nawaz Sharif, who appears to be ready to show his “steel muscles” to his coalition partner, who, our mole says, discussed with his “men” the contents of Nawaz Sharif’s letter, his media talk and body language to pre-judge his mood.

These PPP ministers have attempted to send a message to the PML-N that even if the latter pulls out from the coalition, the number-short PPP government can still continue. But if they are so confident, then it is certain that a “deal” has been reached with the PML-Q, or it’s in the process, otherwise they, particularly Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar, would not make such a categorical statement.

Reports coming from the Prime Minister’s House are also not encouraging as Mr Gilani is said to be preparing to quit if he is not allowed to “function” as a chief executive with a more definite say in matters related to the government. Our mole says that Gilani has already offered to step down and if Zardari House accepts his “request”, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi might be the “dark horse”.

Before Gilani had taken oath as prime minister, he was considered to have been one of the best National Assembly speakers. But he turned out to be a bit of a squib. While Zafarullah Jamali was also not a decision-maker, he had the courage to “confess” on the floor of the National Assembly that he was a PSO to the then all-powerful general-president Pervez Musharraf.

Though it was a private members’ day, the rules were suspended to discuss in the Senate all matters related to “internal security” and a reference to the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in the backdrop of a recent attempt by the real PM to tame it, could not be avoided. The administrative, financial and operation control of the ISI has already been placed under the Interior Ministry and it will remain so until a new notification to cancel the first one is not issued.

Leader of the Opposition in the Senate Kamil Ali Agha referred to issues on internal security and accused the coalition government of having failed in handling the law and order situation in NWFP, FATA and Balochistan. He complained that the people’s representatives were not being taken into confidence over national issues and suggested that all decisions should be taken in parliament. Nothing wrong with that.

But he forgot that when his party was in government the then opposition, now coalition partners, had similar complaints that all decisions were taken by one man who too had un-elected advisers to decide the fate of this nation. So nothing seems to have changed. The only difference is that the power centre has shifted from the Army House to Zardari House and the real PM is without uniform.

Senator Lt Gen (r) Javed Ashraf Qazi, who too once headed the ISI, attempted to correct the misperception about the ISI, saying that this institution was the country’s first line of defence and its main (ninety percent) responsibility was external security. He demanded withdrawal of the notification that placed the ISI under “General Rehman Malik”. Though Senator Qazi explained the role of the ISI in national security and said that there were no “rouge elements” in this organisation, he could not establish that the decision to place “all institutions” under a civilian control was against the “national interest”.

Tailpiece: Mian Manzoor Wattoo is again in action. He has assured Asif Ali Zardari not to worry in case PML-N pulls out from the coalition. “Leave the Punjab to me, I will handle the situation,” our mole quoted him as telling Asif Zardari. But who will handle the Centre? The question remains unanswered. In case Wattoo manages the required number (the PML-Q forward block) to help Asif Zardari install a PPP government in the Punjab, the PPP will still not be able to keep its control in the Centre even if the MQM ditches President Musharraf and starts to support the PPP. Will Wattoo, an already fired cartridge, work any wonders? And it is also to be seen whether the PML-Q’s so-called forward bloc is a real one or just a “Trojan Horse”.

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