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VIEW: What next? —Syed Mansoor Hussain

In spite of all the camaraderie on display between Sharif and Zardari, their parties continue to be ideological and political opponents. Sharif’s party men will sooner rather than later wish to contest an election where they have a real shot at winning a majority in Punjab as well as the National Assembly

The “winter of our discontent”, it seems, is finally over. What started with the imposition of an unnecessary and entirely self-serving emergency that castrated the judiciary and muzzled the press, reached its worst with the assassination of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and seemed to continue with the terror attacks against secular political parties, has finally run its course.

The election results surprised almost everybody. Except for the MMA, the boycotters and members of the Q-League, almost everybody else still got something to be happy, if not ecstatic, about. Voter turnout remained below fifty percent but the people had their say. Yet it is too early to declare that a “glorious summer” is upon us.

As I write this, there is hope that the two largest parties to come out of the elections are willing to work together and will evolve some strategy that allows them to form a government at the centre and probably in Punjab. However, what happens next depends mostly on four men. It is sad that the woman who was to be there is no longer with us.

Of these four men, three are known quantities or so most of us think. The fourth is new and yet historically wields the most power.

So let us look at the first three, these are of course Gen (Retd) Musharraf, Mr Nawaz Sharif and Mr Asif Ali Zardari. All three have an established track record and most Pakistanis are quite well-informed about them.

First, President Musharraf, who is no longer the power that he was. Clearly what is left of “all the king’s horses and all the king’s men” cannot provide him with the authority he once wielded. However, as president he does have the ability to make things extremely difficult for any new government. The question is: will he?

Then we have Mr Sharif. He is known well for his time as Chief Minister of Punjab as well as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Dismissal of chief justices and army chiefs, the attack on the Supreme Court, and arrests and victimisation of opponents including Mr Zardari are all part of his legacy. His attempt to convert Pakistan into a theocracy was an attempt that fortunately failed.

However, Mr Sharif has made the restoration of the axed judiciary his main political aim. Perhaps he actually repents his past actions against the judiciary enough to make amends. Moreover, he has actually accepted the right of the PPP to form government at the centre. All this augurs well for the democratic process.

Mr Zardari though has been the surprise of this election process. His reputation is well known, and equally well known is the fact that he has spent more years in incarceration than any political leader in the history of Pakistan. More importantly, two entirely hostile governments were unable to prove any case against him during this time.

After the assassination of Ms Bhutto, Mr Zardari has played an exemplary role, much to the chagrin of all those who expected him to self-destruct politically. He kept the party together and led it to an electoral victory, if not a triumph. His post-election statements have been extremely statesman-like. The greatest surprise to most observers is, without doubt, what seems to be the mutual respect, perhaps even friendship, that has developed between him and Mr Sharif.

The fourth major player is the Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Kayani. General Kayani seems to have put the integrity and reputation of the institution he commands above the political interests of the former COAS. As the new chief, General Kayani has so far fulfilled John Milton’s prayer that: “They also serve who only stand and wait.” How long and what he is willing to wait for is the question that only he can answer.

So what happens now? Before I proceed I must beg utter forgiveness for using too many quotations. But a little more of the Bard might be in order. I do not think that Gloucester’s “glorious summer” is upon us just yet. My personal opinion is that what lies ahead of us is more along the line of the witches brew: “Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.”

Yes, I am pessimistic. The reasons are, first, and in spite of all the camaraderie on display between Mr Sharif and Mr Zardari, their parties continue to be ideological and political opponents. Mr Sharif’s party men will sooner rather than later wish to contest an election where they have a real shot at winning a majority in Punjab as well as the National Assembly. So, any talk about the PMLN supporting a PPP government for five years is just that, talk.

Second, with Musharraf as president, and based on his past actions, it is unlikely that he is going anywhere on his own. And as long as he is around there will be confrontations between him and a PPP-PMLN government on many major issues that have no obvious solution. Restoration of the Constitution as it existed before he took over in 1999 being one such problem.

Third, and most importantly, there is the problem of the judiciary. I see no legal method by which the deposed CJ of Pakistan can restored without first making the present Supreme Court disappear, as if by magic. If Nawaz Sharif and others insist on using street power to achieve this result then we just might see the sort of ‘law and order’ situation that could force General Kayani to stop waiting and step in.

The transitionists of yore think that they have won out over the transformationists, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the latter might yet have the last laugh.

Syed Mansoor Hussain has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com

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