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Bush will find no Gulf takers for war with Iran

By Lydia Georgi

‘Bush is also unlikely to secure concrete steps by his Gulf hosts to forge ties with Israel’

US President George W Bush will not win any support for military action against Iran when he visits four Gulf Arab allies later this month, political analysts in the region say. While Gulf states are concerned about Iran’s nuclear programme, they would be even more fearful of a US-Iranian conflict.

“It might not spell the end of Iran as a military power, but (merely) spark Iranian reactions against Gulf states which are more than these countries can take,” Kuwait’s Ayed al-Manna told AFP. Although Washington rode roughshod over the Gulf states’ opposition to its 2003 invasion of Iraq, they can be expected to urge Bush “not to escalate militarily with Iran because of the consequences that military action would have in the region” and to pursue a peaceful settlement instead, said Emirati analyst Mohammed al-Roken.

Bush will visit Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as part of a week-long Middle East trip starting in Israel on January 9. The US leader said in his weekly radio address Saturday that the trip aimed to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians and curtail the “aggressive ambitions” of Iran, which according to a US intelligence report made public in December halted a secret nuclear weapons programme in 2003.

The oil-rich Gulf monarchies, including Qatar which Bush visited in 2003, have close military links with the United States and are major buyers of US weaponry. Kuwait hosts some 15,000 US troops and served as a launchpad for the Iraq invasion. Bahrain is home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. One US aircraft carrier, the USS Harry S. Truman, is currently operating in the Gulf, according to a Fifth Fleet spokesman - down from two last year. But Washington has kept up the heat on Iran, with US Defence Secretary Robert Gates calling for the establishment of an “air and missile defence umbrella” over the Gulf region to deter missile attacks by Tehran. His comments last month came as the Pentagon announced proposed sales of Patriot missile defence and early warning systems to the UAE and Kuwait worth more than 10 billion dollars. It also notified Congress of a possible sale to Saudi Arabia of upgraded AWACS airborne early warning systems worth another 400 million dollars.

Anwar Eshki, who heads a Saudi private think tank, said Washington wants to extend the “missile defence shield” planned in eastern Europe to the Gulf region in order to “encircle Russia,” citing the Iranian “threat.” While a US strike against Iran does not appear imminent, Israel might attack the Islamic republic and “drag the United States” into the conflict, he said.

But Roken, whose country is Iran’s largest trade partner, said Bush might be less interested in promoting military action than in discussing “non-military means of putting pressure on Iran,” such as downgrading economic ties. The UAE could agree to take some measures, like restricting banking transactions, “but I don’t think it will go as far as cutting economic links, since this would harm the economy of the UAE, chiefly Dubai,” he said.

The Bush administration has been seeking to toughen UN sanctions against Iran. Distrust of US policy among many ordinary people in the Gulf seems to have extended even to Kuwait, where the prevailing sentiment has been one of gratitude since a US-led coalition ended a seven-month Iraqi occupation in 1991. Kuwaitis are worried that Bush might exert pressure on Gulf states “to win their support for a military strike against Iran,” which would “badly affect” the region’s economy, Kuwaiti health ministry employee Sami al-Mani told AFP.

Echoing frequent criticism of US policies in the regional press, columnist Iman Kurdi wrote in the Saudi daily Arab News Saturday that while a US-Iranian showdown has so far been averted, Bush’s “blood lust” means that he may yet choose to “go out (from office in a year’s time) on a bang.” Bush is also unlikely to secure concrete steps by his Gulf hosts to forge ties with Israel, according to Manna.

Bush will presumably urge Gulf leaders to “extend a hand of friendship” to the Jewish state in order to boost Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, but he will not get more than “promises” so long as no settlement is reached, Manna said. afp

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