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VIEW: Oil versus monks —Farrukh Saleem

The military junta is determined to unleash another bloodbath. A million Filipinos had responded to Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin’s call. To be certain, Burmese revere their monks more than Filipinos revere the Catholic Church. Can the monks bring about democracy for Burma?

America is hungry for Iraq’s oil. Burma is all about oil too. China and India are hungry for Burma’s oil. America loved the Iraqi dictator for as long as the dictator was in America’s economic interest. China and India love the Burmese military junta because the junta has promised them oil (and gas).

Imagine, the day that 20,000 maroon-robed monks marched the streets of Rangoon, the day that the Burmese military shot at the unarmed rally with live bullets was also the day that the Indian Oil Minister Murli Deora was in Rangoon. In Rangoon signing oil and gas exploration contracts between ONGC and the Burmese military junta. China’s interest in the survival of the military junta is two-fold: there’s oil, plus Burma is China’s gateway to the Indian Ocean.

In 1962, Burma was a country whose citizens had one of the highest standards of living in the whole region. Then the general took over. Those were the years when generals in Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam had also seized political power in their respective countries. The Burmese military junta went a step ahead — in addition to political power they seized economic power as well. In Indonesia, General Sukarno was brought down by General Suharto who himself was thrown out by ‘people power’. Thailand has had three Field Marshals, five Generals, seventeen constitutions and nine civilian governments over the past 50 years.

Burma is the only country where military rule has never been interrupted since the generals first took over in 1962. Reason: the military junta’s absolute monopoly over Burma’s economy. There are 49 million Burmese of whom 400,000 are soldiers.

In 1948, upon gaining independence, Burma was the wealthiest country in the region. Burma had the Burmah Oil Company, a major shareholder in British Petroleum. Burma produced 75 percent of the global supply of teak, the tropical hardwood, and was the world’s largest exporter of oil.

In 1962, the soldiers nationalised every single industry outside of agriculture. The soldiers now control oil, forestry, heavy industry, energy, gems, and rice trade. After 45 years of complete military control, Burma no longer has an economy. Burma has no infrastructure, very few roads are paved and 97 percent of total food grain production is rice. Inflation is rampant; the UN has designated Burma as the ‘least developed country’ and Transparency International has ranked Burma as the ‘most corrupt’ country on the face of the planet.

On 8 August 1988, the ‘8888 Uprising’ brought students out on the streets. The military fired into the crowds and killed thousands. A month of brutal repression brought the uprising to its knees. Nineteen years after 8888, Buddhist monks have now come out protesting. Monks are protesting against high prices and rampant inflation.

No outsider has any leverage over Burma’s military junta. No one but China and India. The roaring Chinese and Indian economies are hungry for oil, hungry for Burma’s oil. In 1986, the Roman Catholic Church in the Philippines led the People Power Revolution that brought down Ferdinand Marcos. Can Buddhist monks do the same in Burma?

The military junta is determined to unleash another bloodbath. A million Filipinos had responded to Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin’s call. To be certain, Burmese revere their monks more than Filipinos revere the Catholic Church. Can the monks bring about democracy for Burma? For now, its monks versus oil.

Dr Farrukh Saleem is an Islamabad-based economist and analyst

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