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Waziristan breeding ground of suicide bombers: UN report

* Says govt reforms does a little in FATA
* Militants across country find sanctuary in FATA
* Pakistan’s fears over Indian influence in Afghanistan effects operation against Taliban
* Govt forced to negotiate with militants

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: A new UN report says 80 percent of suicide bombers in Afghanistan came from the Waziristan agencies.

Reforms doing a little in FATA: According to an analysis by Hassan Abbas in Terrorism Monitor, a publication of the Jamestown Foundation, while the Pakistan government has offered to introduce reforms in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), little has been done. Political agents continue to dole out funds to handpicked people, often in an attempt to buy peace. The $750 million worth of US aid for development in FATA is in the pipeline, but there is no publicly known strategy in place on how to channel the funds, leading to apprehensions and uncertainty.

The Taliban and their sympathisers are becoming entrenched in the region and aggressively expanding their influence and operations. The military impasse is exacerbated by the combination of President General Pervez Musharraf’s political predicament and declining public support, a significant rise in suicide attacks targeting the army and the reluctance of soldiers deputed in the area to engage tribal gangs.

Militants find sanctuary in FATA: According to Abbas, many militants associated with local Pakistani militant groups have moved to FATA to benefit from the sanctuary available. The election season is descending upon Pakistan and Musharraf’s survival prospects are diminishing. This scenario has consequences for Pakistan’s policy in the FATA region, which will predictably revert to “peace deals” in the short-term, leading to a lowering of the number of military checkpoints in the area.

The report says this will help Talibanisation in the region and provide more opportunities to the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to indirectly support some Taliban commanders sympathetic to Pakistan’s objectives. Overall, this will likely reduce trouble in Islamabad city, but the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area will remain on fire. The author lists as “important variables” the poor coordination between the Pakistan army and NATO/ISAF, Hamid Karzai’s failure to make Afghanistan a functional state and the abundance of drug money in southern Afghanistan.

Pakistan fears Indian influence in Afghanistan: The factors that limit Pakistan’s effective clampdown on the Taliban in FATA remain linked to its fear about increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan if the Taliban are comprehensively defeated, and there is a lack of Pakistani public support for what Pakistan does in pursuance of the US-led “war on terrorism”.

He says these perceptions significantly affect the morale of army commanders and soldiers operating in the region. Musharraf has largely failed to make a strong case to his people about the need for strong military action against the Taliban in FATA. He has often called this policy as being in the “national interest”, but has not convincingly explained how the army alone defines the national interest.

Abbas writes that South and North Waziristan are at the centre of Taliban and Al Qaeda activities. Recently, Mehsud tribesmen aligned with Taliban forces abducted 205 Pakistani troops (135 army soldiers and 70 Frontier Corps troops) along with the seizure of 20 of their vehicles.

Govt forced to negotiate with militants: He says the most striking fact, however, is that the government forces offered no resistance while being kidnapped. After more than three weeks, a majority of the soldiers is still in Taliban custody, and the government has been practically forced to engage in negotiations with them. This reflects government weakness in the face of the Taliban’s growing strength and influence. Pamphlets being distributed in the region, while warning local tribes not to side with government forces, assert that “like in Afghanistan, we have established suicide squads for attacks on troops and their allies in Pakistan”.

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