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Combating jihadism Pakistan’s greatest challenge: Stratfor

* Musharraf will have to share control with the next army chief

By Khalid Hasan

Washington: “The coming political transition is unlikely to foster stability because Musharraf will be sharing power with a civilian prime minister leading a coalition government, and with an army chief. This means the next army chief and the new head of the ISI could be heavily involved in politics at a time when they need to concentrate on combating jihadism,” according to a commentary by Stratfor.

The Texas-based news intelligence service discloses that the new chief of ISI Lt Gen Nadeem Taj played an instrumental role in the 2004 release of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s husband, Asif Zardari. “Moreover, Bhutto has a favourable opinion of Taj - an indication that his appointment as ISI director general is part of the ongoing Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations,” it adds.

According to the commentary, since Gen Musharraf’s power is a function of his position as military chief, he needs to be able to ensure that he can maintain control over the army even after he becomes a civilian president.

Musharraf sharing control: “Formally, he will have this control; the Constitution gives the president power to appoint the chiefs of the three armed services. However, since he will not hold the dual offices he has held since he came to power, Musharraf will have to share control with the next chief of army staff. It is well known that from 1988 to 1999, when the army was not directly ruling the country, the sitting president was the one whose position was in danger during any struggle between rival political forces, because the army chief did not necessarily side with the president. To get around this problem, Musharraf is appointing and promoting people who will remain loyal to him after he takes a civilian role.”

Stratfor said Pakistan now faces the biggest challenge since its inception: a growing jihadist insurgency. Thus far, the military establishment has been on the defensive regarding an unprecedented wave of suicide attacks, mostly against army personnel and facilities - including some very sensitive installations.

The process of purging militant sympathisers within the ranks of the military and the intelligence apparatus has been going on since the 9/11 attacks, but the new ISI chief will not be able to deal with the jihadist problem before sealing the leaks in the national security network - an objective that is not likely to be achieved any time soon. Among other problems, this could create a conflict between Washington and Islamabad over the United States’ counter-terrorism imperatives.

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