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ANALYSIS: Oil price in danger zone — OPEC concerned, US worried

* Oil has been on an upward march since January when it sank to about $50

LONDON: Oil at an all-time high near $80 a barrel has pushed top fuel consumer the United States into the economic danger zone — and OPEC, too, is concerned.

The 12 exporters are keeping a lid on supply for now given ample stocks of crude worldwide, but if prices stay this high or inventories continue to drain, they may reconsider when they meet on Sept 11. Expensive fuel has had only a modest impact on US consumers, but Energy Secretary Sam Bodman voiced concern the economy will suffer if prices do not fall soon. “That’s why I hope that both OPEC and non-OPEC nations will look carefully at the facts,” he said on Thursday — the day after US crude hit a record $78.77.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps around a third of the world’s oil, shares his unease about the implications. When oil was around $78, the group’s president, Mohammed al-Hamli, said OPEC was worried record prices would take a toll on the world’s economy and erode fuel demand.

“We are concerned about the higher price, because we don’t want to go through a recession,” said Hamli, also the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates. His words alone knocked $1 a barrel off crude prices. An OPEC decision to reverse even part of the 1.7 million barrels per day of output curbs in place since early this year could help to flush out speculators that have in part been driving markets higher. Oil has been on an upward march since January when it sank to about $50. Since then, prices have rallied on expectations of gasoline shortages in the United States, as well as two rounds of OPEC cuts and general nervousness about security of supply. OPEC’s Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri has said he prefers prices that are neither too high nor too low. “...We feel comfortable if the oil price doesn’t fall below $50,” Badri said this week in Austria’s WirtschaftsBlatt newspaper. “A price above $80 wouldn’t please us either.”

Not only about price: At the same time, OPEC ministers, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia, have repeatedly said price is not the only justification for changing output policy.

The market is well supplied with oil and U.S. crude stocks are above their five-year average.

Ministers have also noted the weakness of the US dollar means a barrel of oil in real terms is no costlier than it was three decades ago. Before deciding to increase output, they want to see evidence of supply tightness. “We know we can only move when there is a real shortage of supplies,” Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Thursday. “We need proof that extra production is needed.” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on July 11 — when oil was around $76 — that customers were not seeking more crude.

“There is a good balance between supply and demand. Inventories are in a comfortable position, therefore fundamentals do not support high prices today,” Naimi said then. But even when fundamentals are comfortable, headlines about high prices could eventually force OPEC’s hand. “The Saudis will find $80 crude and declining crude inventories a difficult combination to defend, especially in light of subtle, but very aggressive US pressure,” said Edward Meir of MF Global Energy.

One thing that could radically change the outlook would be the kind hurricane season that two years ago devastated rigs and refineries in the US Gulf. “I don’t think people understand how strong these factors are. The hurricane season will put more pressure on the price in the biggest consumer market in the world,” Hamli said. reuters

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