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‘Earthquake Design Codes: An Option or A Necessity?’: Experts predict next quake closer to capital

* Collapsed Margalla Towers had significant design flaws: report

By Imran Naeem Ahmad

ISLAMABAD: The next earthquake to strike Pakistan will be deadlier than the one that jolted Kashmir on October 8, 2005, and it is likely to occur closer to Islamabad, according to a paper scheduled to be read at next month’s Ninth Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering.

Arif Masud, an associate professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign (UIUC) and Prof AS Elnashai, the Mid-America Earthquake Centre director, prepared the paper which stresses the need for adopting general and seismic codes for building designs. “Such codes are an absolute necessity, not an option, for Pakistan if authorities want to avoid the loss to life and property that occurred during the 2005 disaster or even worse,” said the paper titled ‘Earthquake Design Codes for Pakistan: An Option or A Necessity?” The high-profile conference, where the research paper will be read, is being held in Ottawa and Ontario, Canada, from June 26 to 29 and is set to draw experts from various regions.

The October 8 earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale killed over 75,000 people in Northern Pakistan, leaving thousands injured and millions other homeless.

The paper points out that ‘slip rate measurements’ in the Himalayan Arc confirm the likelihood of more earthquakes that could be in excess of magnitude 8 on the Richter scale.

The paper, through pictures of the ground floor of the collapsed Margalla Tower in Islamabad, shows that the stronger axis of all building columns aligned in one direction left the structure laterally weaker. Another image reveals the amount of reinforcements and approximate sizes of reinforcing bars at the base of one of the interior columns.

About 50 people were killed when the tower, considered one of the upscale apartment buildings in Islamabad, caved in. It was the only building in town that was damaged in the earthquake.

“The collapsed buildings had significant flaws in engineering design and point towards the critical importance of new code provisions,” said the paper.

A review of the earthquake history of the area confirms that the Kashmir tragedy is moderate when viewed in the context of the earthquake generation potential of the India-Tibet region.

“Theoretical studies indicate that the energy stored along the Himalayan Arc has a high probability of several massive earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 8 in future,” said the paper.

“Structural codes for Pakistan can be accomplished in two to three years provided adequate resources and decisive leadership are combined with technical personnel that have a proven track record in code-making,” it says. It says Pakistan could follow other international models for code development like the European community’s complete set of codes for all products, not just building and bridges.

The widespread structural damage, the experts say, is not unexpected with dominant factors being the poor quality of construction (non-engineered buildings) and a non-existent seismic design to resist earthquake action. The bridge structures, it is noted in the paper, responded well to the earthquake with only a few cases of heavy damage and fewer cases of collapse.

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