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Asia’s demand for oil set to double by 2030

BANGKOK: Asia’s demand for oil will nearly double over the next 25 years and will account for 85% of the increased demand in 2007, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) officials forecast yesterday at a Bangkok-hosted energy conference.

“The highest annual average rates of growth in oil demand are expected to occur in Asia during this 25 year period, with demand in China and South/South-East Asia collectively being around two and half times the global average of 1.4%,” said UAE Energy Minister and president of Opec Mohamed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, in his opening address to a two-day regional seminar on energy hosted by Bangkok which opened yesterday.

“To put it in another way, China and South/South-East Asia collectively accounted for around 17% of world oil demand in 2005. The Opec scenario projects this to rise sharply to around 29% in 2030,” said al-Hamli.

The Bangkok conference is one of many such events Opec is joining in Asia, where the petroleum organisation is trying to cultivate a better dialogue with their fastest growing markets.

“At Opec, we believe that effective multilateral dialogue is essential if the global oil industry is to develop in a sound and orderly manner, benefiting producers and consumers alike and with a heavy emphasis on the special needs of emerging economies,” said Hasan M Qabazard, director of Opec’s research division.

Opec started a special dialogue with China last year, has participated in Bangkok’s regional “Asia Energy Dialogue” this week and will join a workshop with the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Bali, Indonesia, in May, said Qabazard.

The sudden interest in the region has been kindled by a shift in economic growth, and hence demand for oil, from the developed world to the fast developing economies in Asia.

“This year, we expect an increase in demand worldwide of 1.3mn barrels a day, with around 85% going to go to Asia,” Qabazard said.

Opec expects to increase its supply from 30mn barrels a day at present to 49mn bpd by the year 2030, with much of the new production heading for Asia, an area with limited petroleum reserves of its own.

The Opec research director, predictably, downplayed the region’s efforts to promote alternative energy sources such as ethanol and bio-fuel.

“Today there is a big hype on bio-fuels,” said Qabazard. “Although they are highly subsidised, the total world production is somewhere around 800,000 barrels per day, compared with 85mn barrels per day of oil,” he noted.

“This is expected to double by 2020, which is 1.3mn bpd, so I don’t see bio-fuels playing that much of a role in the future.” dpa

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