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Mystery surrounds Zawahri’s silence

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: The October 31 Bajaur airstrike either killed Al Qaeda’s deputy chief Ayman al-Zawahri or hit so close to home that it has forced him to go deeper underground, according to a commentary issued by Stratfor, the Texas-based news intelligence service.

The commentary by Stratfor’s South Asia expert Kamran Asghar Bokhari points out that Al Qaeda’s top leaders have traditionally been very keen on keeping the world abreast of their status. It is, therefore, strange that nearly a month since the airstrike, there has been no word from al-Zawahri. There has been no word from Osama Bin Laden either.

Stratfor argues that the first possibility seems unlikely for a number of reasons. First of all, had al-Zawahri been killed, the jihadist communication network by now would have leaked the news of his death. It would be very hard to hide the death of either al-Zawahri or Bin Laden, even if US intelligence could not confirm the killing.

“It could be that the Oct 31 missile strike has created technical obstacles to issuing videotapes, which would explain why there has not been much output from As-Sahab, Al Qaeda’s , since the madrassa was hit. But given that As-Sahab’s production facilities are unlikely to be located in the remote tribal badlands straddling the Afghan-Pakistani border, technical difficulties are not likely the case. The lack of a communiqué from al-Zawahri is much more likely the result of a conscious decision to maintain radio silence because of a breach in Al Qaeda’s operational security net,” according to Stratfor.

In other words, argues the commentary, al-Zawahri has likely survived, and is trying to stay beneath the radar. The strike, while it did not eliminate al-Zawahri, must have come very close to doing so.

Al Qaeda views the location and timing of the madrassa strike as a penetration of the movements and schedules of Al Qaeda. From Al Qaeda’s point of view, US and/or Pakistani intelligence has come very close to one of its inner concentric security perimeters. More significantly, Al Qaeda at the time of the strike - and this may still be the case - did not know where this penetration had taken place. Therefore, it has brought its communications, especially its communication to the outside world, to a grinding halt.

And it is going to maintain this posture until it identifies the security breach and seals it. This could be matter of weeks or of months. Once it is confident that it has re-established operational security, Al Qaeda will resume releasing video communiqués.

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