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North Korean test to impact US-India nuclear deal

WASHINGTON: One country that is likely to be significantly affected by the North Korean nuclear test is India, according to Peter Crail of the Monterey Institute of Non-Proliferation Studies.

Writing in the journal WMD Insights, he noted concern expressed in India over the impact of the development on the US-Indian agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation, which is hanging fire in Congress and may even face defeat in the event of the Democrats gaining control of the Senate. The house has already passed it, but the Senate has slapped on a number of amendments to it, some of which India finds unacceptable.

While India condemned the North Korean test, Pakistan called it “regrettable” but expressed little concern about its repercussions for Islamabad. Although India has refused to join the NPT and has, in the past, criticised the Treaty as a discriminatory regime, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stressed that the test was “a violation of (North Korea’s) international commitments”, and said “a further erosion of the non-proliferation regime is not in our interest”. Crail noted that in holding Pyongyang directly and solely accountable for the test and the resulting damage to the non-proliferation regime, India diverged from the stance of the 118-member Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), of which it was a prominent member.

While India has also been critical of the discriminatory nature of the NPT regime and historically has shared the NAM’s promotion of global nuclear disarmament, it refrained from making the linkage between the North Korean test and the stimulus for new states to acquire nuclear arms provided by the arsenals of the existing nuclear powers. Moreover, by couching its condemnation, in part, on North Korea’s undermining of the non-proliferation regime, India also demonstrated its slow but unmistakable shift from a defiant non-proliferation-regime outlier country — the status it reaffirmed when it tested nuclear weapons in 1998 — to a country that seeks to uphold the integrity of the regime and perceives itself as benefiting from it. “It remains to be seen, however, how far India will take its new attitude and, in particular, whether New Delhi will take as principled a pro-non-proliferation stand with respect to halting the Iranian nuclear programme, as it has with North Korea, given the economic ties between India and Iran,” stressed the nuclear expert. .

Crail pointed out that North Korea’s test came at a time when the US Congress was considering legislation to implement the July 18, 2005, nuclear accord between the two countries, which would end a decades-long embargo on US civil nuclear cooperation with New Delhi and pave the way for the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to end a similar embargo imposed in 1992.

By causing the international community to condemn and stigmatise the entrance of another state into the small group of countries possessing nuclear weapons beyond the five original “nuclear weapon states” recognised by the NPT, a group of late arrivals that included India, the North Korean test inevitably undercut New Delhi’s efforts to legitimise itself as an accepted nuclear-weapon power, argued Crail.

The author noted that to allay Indian fears regarding any hindrance the North Korean test could pose for the US-India deal, on 12 October this year, US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns reaffirmed the Bush administration’s commitment to carrying out the agreement with India, drawing sharp distinctions between India and North Korea. Tony Blair has also used a similar argument in favour of the deal. It appears that there is a growing willingness on the part of some countries to respond to the development of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery on the basis of the actor undertaking the development, rather than on the basis the capability itself. It was not yet clear what impact this reorientation could have on the various WMD non-proliferation regimes, which are were focused on the inherent destructiveness of certain types of weapons, asked Crail. India has also used Pakistan’s nuclear links with North Korea to support its own nuclear weapons programme. It has criticised the “underhand” means employed by Pakistan and North Korea to go nuclear, compared with its own, what it considers, above-board and acceptable means to go nuclear, glossing over the fact that it has also resorted to nuclear smuggling to support its programme.

Crail concluded his analysis by observing, “By immediately condemning the North Korean nuclear test and drawing attention to the linkages between North Korea and Pakistan, India has aligned itself with the major powers and the non-proliferation regime, deflected potential questions regarding the wisdom of the US-India deal, and simultaneously put pressure on Pakistan by holding it partially responsible for North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability. khalid hasan

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