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Doubts expressed as to Rabia’s Al Qaeda ranking

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: Doubts have been expressed as to Hamza Rabia really being the “No 3 man” in Al Qaeda, as Pakistan has claimed.

A commentary authored by Kamran Bokhari for Stratfor, an American news and analysis service, “The Pakistanis would have an interest in propagating the notion that Al Qaeda’s third-highest ranking member was killed. By assigning a high value to Rabia, Islamabad can placate Washington by showing progress and cooperation in the war on terrorism.”

He argues that if Rabia was not killed by an accidental explosion, the cause of his death was likely a missile fired from a US unmanned drone. Using a missile fired from an RQ-1 Predator drone would not be out of the ordinary. In May 2005, was killed by an AGM-114 Hellfire missile fired from a Predator. He notes Pakistan’s denial that al-Yemeni’s death was caused by a US air strike.

The Stratfor analyst maintains that if the Predator/Hellfire combination was used, it did not happen in a vacuum. There had to be intelligence - possibly human intelligence or intercepted signals intelligence - identifying the target at a specific location and a specific time in order to coordinate the strike. It is also likely that Washington had a source in the area to put “eyes on” the target and confirm Rabia’s presence in the house prior to launching the missile.

“For their part, it is not surprising that the Pakistanis would deny that Rabia was taken out by a US missile. Although the government of Pakistani President Gen Pervez Musharraf is one of Washington’s most valuable allies in the war on terrorism, anti-American sentiment in the country runs high. Public acknowledgement that US drones are operating over Pakistan and launching missiles could direct that sentiment toward Musharraf,” he points out.

According to the analysis, the Predator/Hellfire combination is a favourite weapon in the US arsenal for dealing with terrorists. Flying high and far away, the small drone is very difficult to detect on radar, by sight or by sound. The Hellfire is guided by a laser mounted in a turret on the Predator that is aimed from the drone’s remote ground control station, often miles - or a continent - away. The Predator’s built-in laser designator eliminates the need for a spotter on the ground to “paint” the target with a laser, enabling the drone to strike deep inside what Al Qaeda would consider to be safe territory. When the missiles, which fly at supersonic speeds, strike, the only indication their targets receive that they are under attack is the explosion of the Hellfire’s warheads.

“The psychological impact of a weapon that can kill silently and stealthily is a valuable force multiplier at the tactical level in Washington’s war on terrorism. Because it involves more direct involvement with operations, which can leave more ‘rabbit trails’ for intelligence to follow, the so-called No 3 job in Al Qaeda seems to carry with it the inherent risk of being captured or killed. It is likely that the Predator/Hellfire combination will be used again to take out another high-value target in the region,” writes Bokhari.

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