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No major earthquake likely in 35 to 40 years: Met official

* Govt committee to present seismic zoning report in two months

By Shahzad Raza

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s earthquake-prone areas are unlikely to face another severe earthquake for the next 35 to 40 years, Meteorology Office Director General Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhry told Daily Times.

Chaudhry rejected the possibility of another major earthquake in the near future because most of the energy built up underground had been released during the October 8 earthquake and its aftershocks.

The Met Office director general claimed that around 80 percent of the energy stored in Pakistan’s part of the fault line had been released. More energy was released in the 1,347 aftershocks after the earthquake, he added.

He said people claiming the country would face another severe earthquake within five to 10 years were wrong. He said it would take 35 to 40 years for the fault line to build up the same amount of energy as that released on October 8. The government has formed a committee to conduct seismic zoning of high-risk areas and it will submit its report in two months, he added.

However, Allah Bakhsh Kosar, Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) director, said earthquake predictions could only be made after thorough research and analysis. “No one can give an accurate prediction about an earthquake, but vague predictions can be made,” he said. To predict an earthquake of the same intensity, it is important to dig trenches over active fault lines and obtain the carbon data and previous track record of earthquakes on that line, he added. Kosar said a large gap in the main fault line still existed near Srinagar, and it might cause another high-intensity earthquake. He said earthquakes and active fault lines in northern Pakistan and adjacent parts in India and Afghanistan were the result of the subcontinent moving northward at 40 millimetres per year and colliding with the Eurasian continent.

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